Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies Pick For 4/12/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies Overview

• Date: April 12, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bailey Falter - Pirates
  • Cristopher Sanchez - Phillies
• Run Line: Pirates 1.5 -145, Phillies -1.5 125
• Money Line: Pirates 140, Phillies -165
• Total (Over/Under):9 -110

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Pittsburgh Pirates - 40%
• Philadelphia Phillies - 60%

Projected Win %:

• Pittsburgh Pirates - 36.04%
• Philadelphia Phillies - 63.96%

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies Game Preview & Prediction

In a highly anticipated National League matchup scheduled for April 12, 2024, the Philadelphia Phillies will play host to the Pittsburgh Pirates at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies, with a season record of 7-6, are having an above-average season, while the Pirates boast an impressive 9-4 record, indicating a great start to their campaign.

Taking the mound for the Phillies is left-handed pitcher Cristopher Sanchez, who is projected to start the game. Sanchez, ranked as the #43 best starting pitcher in MLB by our advanced-stat Power Rankings, has started two games this year, with a win/loss record of 0-1. Although his ERA stands at 4.82, which is below average, his 3.81 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky so far and is likely to perform better in future outings.

Opposing Sanchez will be left-handed pitcher Bailey Falter, who has also started two games this season for the Pirates. Falter, considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB by our Power Rankings, has a win/loss record of 0-0 and an ERA of 5.40. Interestingly, his 6.54 xFIP indicates that he has been fortunate this season and may regress in his upcoming performances.

In terms of offensive prowess, the Phillies rank as the #20 team in MLB. They have a solid batting average, ranking 8th in the league, and are known for their ability to steal bases, ranking 10th. On the other hand, the Pirates come in at #7 in MLB, showcasing their strong offensive capabilities. However, their team batting average ranks low at #26.

With an implied win probability of 60% and a higher projected team total of 4.98 runs, the Phillies head into this game as the betting favorites, favored by a moneyline of -160. The Pirates, with a moneyline of +140, have an implied win probability of 40%.

In this promising matchup, the Phillies look to capitalize on their home-field advantage and build on their above-average season. Meanwhile, the Pirates aim to stay hot and continue their impressive start to the year. It's sure to be an exciting game of baseball.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

In his previous GS, Bailey Falter struggled when it came to striking batters out and was only able to tally 1 Ks.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Oneil Cruz has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (55% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the batting order today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Projected catcher Henry Davis grades out as a horrible pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Cristopher Sanchez will rack up an average of 5.3 strikeouts in this game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies' bullpen profiles as the 10th-worst among all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 73 of their last 118 games (+13.30 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 50 of their last 83 games (+13.75 Units / 15% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates 3.97 vs Philadelphia Phillies 5.12

Check out all our free picks on every MLB game daily in our MLB betting section.