Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies Best Bet – 4/14/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies Overview

• Date: April 14, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitch Keller - Pirates
  • Zack Wheeler - Phillies
• Run Line: Pirates 1.5 -135, Phillies -1.5 115
• Money Line: Pirates 160, Phillies -185
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -110

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Pittsburgh Pirates - 37%
• Philadelphia Phillies - 63%

Projected Win %:

• Pittsburgh Pirates - 35.18%
• Philadelphia Phillies - 64.82%

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies Game Preview & Prediction

In a National League matchup, the Philadelphia Phillies are set to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates on April 14, 2024, at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies, with a season record of 8-7, are having an above-average season, while the Pirates boast an impressive 10-5 record, indicating a great season so far.

The Phillies are projected to start Zack Wheeler, a right-handed pitcher who has been ranked as the #9 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Wheeler has started three games this year and holds a Win/Loss record of 0-2. His ERA stands at an excellent 1.89, although his xFIP suggests that he may regress in future performances.

Opposing Wheeler will be Mitch Keller, another right-handed pitcher. Keller, however, is considered a below-average pitcher according to our Power Rankings. He has started three games this season, with a Win/Loss record of 1-1 and an ERA of 5.29. Similar to Wheeler, Keller's xFIP indicates that he may improve going forward.

The Phillies offense ranks as the 23rd best in MLB this season, while the Pirates offense sits at 12th place. The Phillies excel in team batting average, ranking 8th, and stolen bases, ranking 10th. On the other hand, the Pirates struggle in team batting average, ranking 26th, but fare better in stolen bases, ranking 12th.

Considering the projected starting pitchers and the offensive rankings, the Phillies are the favorites in this game, with a current moneyline of -180 and an implied win probability of 62%. The Pirates, as the underdogs, have a moneyline of +155 and an implied win probability of 38%.

Based on the current odds, the Phillies have a high implied team total of 4.82 runs, while the Pirates have a lower implied team total of 3.68 runs.

As the game unfolds, keep an eye on the performances of Zack Wheeler and Mitch Keller on the mound, as well as the offensive contributions from both teams. With the Phillies aiming to extend their above-average season, and the Pirates looking to continue their great run, this matchup promises an exciting battle between these NL rivals.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Compared to the average pitcher, Mitch Keller has been given more leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, throwing an extra 6.3 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

The switch-hitting Bryan Reynolds will get to bat from his good side (0) today against Zack Wheeler.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Henry Davis pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.4% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Zack Wheeler in the 88th percentile when assessing his strikeout talent.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Brandon Marsh has been hot of late, notching 2 long-balls over the past week.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

The 5th-best projected offense of the day in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Pirates vs Phillies Prediction: Pirates 3.83 - Phillies 5.01

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.