Pittsburgh Pirates at Cleveland Guardians Pick & Prediction – 9/1/2024

• Date: September 1, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitch Keller - Pirates
  • Alex Cobb - Guardians

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

On September 1, 2024, the Cleveland Guardians host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Progressive Field in what is the third game of this Interleague series. The Guardians have had a strong season with a record of 77-59, while the Pirates are struggling at 63-72. The Guardians are coming off a solid performance, and their recent form has been boosted by the resurgence of Bo Naylor, their best hitter over the past week.

Cleveland is projected to start Alex Cobb, who has had a mixed season with a 1-1 record and an average ERA of 4.35. Despite being ranked as the 86th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system, Cobb’s low strikeout rate (9.5 K%) could play in his favor against a Pirates offense that ranks 5th in the league for strikeouts. However, his projections indicate that he might struggle to pitch deep into the game, averaging just 4.6 innings.

On the mound for Pittsburgh, Mitch Keller boasts a respectable 11-8 record and a solid 3.84 ERA. While Keller’s performance has been good, his projections suggest that he is also likely to face challenges, particularly against a Guardians lineup that, despite ranking only 20th in overall offense, does possess depth.

Cleveland’s bullpen ranks 13th in MLB, which is a slight edge over Pittsburgh’s 20th rank. With the Guardians favored at a moneyline of -145 and an implied total of 4.31 runs, they look to capitalize on their home-field advantage against the struggling Pirates, who have an implied total of just 3.69 runs. Ultimately, this matchup presents a favorable opportunity for the Guardians as they continue to push for a strong finish to the season.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Mitch Keller's 2412-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 80th percentile among all starters.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Nick Gonzales has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (70% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

It may be smart to expect improved performance for the Pittsburgh Pirates offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 3rd-unluckiest offense in the majors this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Given that groundball pitchers hold a substantial advantage over groundball batters, Alex Cobb and his 53.8% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a strong spot in this matchup going up against 2 opposing GB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Will Brennan's average exit velocity has fallen off in recent games; his 86.6-mph seasonal figure has lowered to 79-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Cleveland Guardians batters jointly have been one of the worst in the league this year ( worst) when it comes to their 87.7-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 63 games at home (+7.35 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 74 of their last 135 games (+9.11 Units / 5% ROI)
• Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 18 games at home (+7.35 Units / 40% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.2 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.98

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.