Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals Prediction & Odds – 9/28/2024

• Date: September 28, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zack Wheeler - Phillies
  • MacKenzie Gore - Nationals

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

As the Philadelphia Phillies take on the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on September 28, 2024, the two teams find themselves in quite different positions. The Phillies, boasting a 94-66 record, are having a stellar season, while the Nationals, at 70-90, are struggling. This matchup is the second game of their series, and Philadelphia aims to maintain its strong performance as they continue their push towards the playoffs.

The pitching duel features Zack Wheeler for the Phillies and MacKenzie Gore for the Nationals. Wheeler, with a 16-7 record and an impressive 2.56 ERA, ranks as the 5th-best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. However, his peripheral stats suggest some luck, as indicated by his 3.36 xFIP, which is 0.80 points higher than his ERA. On the other hand, Gore, with a 10-12 record and a 4.04 ERA, is ranked 124th, indicating a below-average season.

The Phillies' offense, ranked 4th in MLB, will be a significant challenge for the Nationals. With a strong lineup that ranks 4th in batting average and 7th in home runs, Philadelphia's bats have the potential to make a big impact. In contrast, the Nationals' offense ranks 24th overall, struggling particularly with power, sitting at 29th in home runs. However, Washington leads the league in stolen bases, showcasing their speed on the bases.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Phillies are favored with a 64% win probability. While the Nationals face an uphill battle, their ability to avoid strikeouts and walks could give them a slight edge against Wheeler's strengths. Despite being underdogs, Washington's lineup and Gore's potential to outperform his projections could make this an intriguing matchup.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Compared to the average starting pitcher, Zack Wheeler has been granted an above-average leash this year, tallying an additional 7.7 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (20.1) provides evidence that Austin Hays has experienced some negative variance this year with his 9.5 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Placing 2nd-least steep in Major League Baseball this year, Philadelphia Phillies bats as a group have recorded a 10.5° launch angle on their hardest-hit balls (a reliable metric to evaluate power skills).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

MacKenzie Gore has gone to his change-up 6.4% more often this season (9.3%) than he did last year (2.9%).

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Juan Yepez has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 5.7% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% over the last 7 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals' bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 40 of their last 72 games at home (+6.50 Units / 7% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 48 of their last 80 games (+13.80 Units / 15% ROI)
• Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 16 away games (+10.45 Units / 50% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 5.52 vs Washington Nationals 3.83

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