Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals Pick – 8/17/2025
The Philadelphia Phillies and Washington Nationals will close out a four-game series when they play on Sunday morning. The Nats have won two of the first three games of this series and will look to secure a shocking series win with a victory in this contest. Before Philadelphia and Washington begin the Sunday MLB slate for the day, continue reading to get my Phillies vs Nationals prediction.
Our Phillies vs Nationals Pick
- Pick: Nationals Moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals
- Date & Time: Sunday, August 17, 2025, 11:35 a.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Aaron Nola (1-7, 6.16 ERA) vs Mitchell Parker (7-13, 5.55 ERA)
- Stadium: Nationals Park, Washington, D.C.
- Broadcast: Roku
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Aaron Nola is a veteran presence for the Phillies. But he has had a rough 2025 season. He is 1-7 and has an elevated ERA of 6.16. He has a 1.51 WHIP and has to do a better job of keeping runners off the basepaths. Mitchell Parker has also struggled with a 5.63 ERA and has not pitched particularly well at home. Both pitchers have their vulnerabilities even if Nola comes into this matchup with the bigger name.
Key Players
- Kyle Schwarber leads the Phillies with 43 homers and 101 RBI. He crossed the 100-RBI threshold over the weekend and will look to make an impact here as well.
- Washington’s bullpen will also be a focal point in this game. They have struggled for most of this season but held up nicely over the first three games of this series.
Recent team streaks
- Phillies: The Phillies have lost four of their last five games but still hold a five-game lead in the NL East standings.
- Nationals: Washington has won three of their last four games going into this series finale at Nationals Park.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| James Wood | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
| Aaron Nola | Under 5.5 Strikeouts |
| Mitchell Parker | Under 4.5 Strikeouts |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Phillies lead the season series against the Nationals 5-4.
- The Phillies have outscored the Nationals 8-7 over the last three games even though the Nationals have won two of those games.
- Philadelphia is 63-60 on the runline this season.
- Washington is 60-63 on the runline in their games.
Phillies vs Nationals Model Projection
Score Projection: Nationals 5 – Phillies 4
Win Probability: Nationals 51%, Phillies 49%
Final Thoughts
In most years, I think the Phillies would have a huge advantage with Aaron Nola on the mound. But Nola has been dreadful so far this season. I expect the Nationals to put up a fight in this game and think they are a value as an underdog in this matchup. I’ll take the Nats to win and to secure the series win over the leaders in the NL East.
