Philadelphia Phillies VS St. Louis Cardinals Betting Pick & Preview – 4/8/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals Overview

• Date: April 8, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Spencer Turnbull - Phillies
  • Miles Mikolas - Cardinals
• Run Line: Phillies 1.5 -205, Cardinals -1.5 175
• Money Line: Phillies -110, Cardinals -110
• Total (Over/Under):9 100

Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Philadelphia Phillies - 50%
• St. Louis Cardinals - 50%

Projected Win %:

• Philadelphia Phillies - 49.75%
• St. Louis Cardinals - 50.25%

Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals Game Preview & Prediction

In a National League matchup, the St. Louis Cardinals will be hosting the Philadelphia Phillies at Busch Stadium on April 8, 2024. The Cardinals, with a season record of 5-5, are having an average season thus far. On the other hand, the Phillies have struggled with a 4-5 record, making it a bad season for them.

The Cardinals are projected to start right-handed pitcher Miles Mikolas, who has had a rough start to the season. Mikolas has started two games, with a win-loss record of 1-1 and an ERA of 6.10, which is considered horrible. However, his 3.91 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

The Phillies will counter with right-handed pitcher Spencer Turnbull, who has shown promise with a 1-0 record and a perfect 0.00 ERA. However, his 0.98 xFIP indicates that he may have been fortunate and could regress in his performance.

The Cardinals' offense ranks as the 22nd best in MLB this season, while the Phillies' offense ranks 16th. However, the Cardinals excel in team batting average (7th) and home runs (5th), while the Phillies have a strong ranking in team batting average (8th) and stolen bases (10th).

According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, the Cardinals have the second-best bullpen in MLB, while the Phillies rank 21st. The Cardinals' best hitter this season has been yet to be mentioned, while Bryce Harper has been the Phillies' standout performer.

Looking at the pitching matchup, Turnbull's high groundball rate may pose a challenge for the powerful Cardinals' offense, which relies heavily on home runs. This could give Turnbull an advantage if the Cardinals struggle to hit the ball in the air.

Based on the current odds, both teams have an equal implied win probability of 50%, indicating that this could be a close game.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Kyle Schwarber has a ton of pop (100th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (28.5% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Miles Mikolas has a pitch-to-contact profile (21st percentile K%) — great news for Schwarber.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen ranks as the 10th-worst in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense profiles as the 2nd-strongest among every team playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

In today's game, Nolan Arenado is at a disadvantage facing the league's 6th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 43% rate (100th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 32 games at home (+3.75 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Run Line in 37 of their last 68 games (+9.20 Units / 12% ROI)
• Victor Scott II has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.40 Units / 47% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies 4.61 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.38

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