Philadelphia Phillies vs San Francisco Giants Pick – 7/9/2025

The Philadelphia Phillies and San Francisco Giants will go at it in the final game of their three-game series on Wednesday. The Giants have won the first two games of this series so far. Philadelphia will look to an edge in the starting pitching department to try and avoid the sweep out West. Here, I break down this matchup in the betting markets and make my Phillies vs Giants prediction.

Our Phillies vs Giants Pick

  • Pick: Phillies moneyline
  • Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot

  • Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies vs San Francisco Giants
  • Date & Time: Wednesday, July 9, 2025, 3:45 PM EDT
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Philadelphia – Jesús Luzardo (7‑5, 4.44 ERA)
    • San Francisco – Justin Verlander (0‑6, 4.84 ERA)
  • Stadium: Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA
  • Broadcast: NBCS-BA / NBCS-PH

Key Storylines

Pitching form

Jesus Luzardo’s season has been inconsistent. He has 7 wins but also has a 4.44 ERA. He is the better of the two starting pitchers in this game but that is more of an indictment on Justin Verlander than anything else. Verlander has yet to secure a win this season. He is carrying a 4.84 ERA. He has struggled locating his pitches this year and needs to change that for his team to win here.

Bullpen usage

The Giants have the best bullpen ERA in baseball. They have showcased that in this series by holding the Phillies to four runs over two games. Philly’s bullpen has also performed respectably in this series but hasn’t been able to keep up with the Giants.

Recent team streaks

  • The Giants have won four straight games entering this contest.
  • Philadelphia has dropped two games in a row and is 5-5 over its last 10 games.

Best Player Props

PlayerPropOdds
Kyle Schwarber (PHI)Home run+390
Matt Chapman (SFG)Home run+425
Justin Verlander (SFG)Strikeouts over 4.5+105
  • Giants are 27‑17 at home; Phillies are 23‑23 on the road.
  • Philadelphia has covered 53.3% of their games on the runline. San Francisco is 42‑50 ATS.
  • The Giants lead this season series 4-2.

Phillies vs Giants Model Projection

Score Projection: Phillies 5 – Giants 4
Win Probability: Phillies 56% | Giants 44%

Final Thoughts

There is a lot to like about the way the Giants have been playing baseball lately. But Justin Verlander has not been one of those things. The struggles of the Giants’ starter going into this game are a major concern. I expect Verlander to struggle again in this game against a dangerous Phillies lineup. The Phillies to win this game on the moneyline is my top play. I also recommend backing Kyle Schwarber to go yard against Verlander today.


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Home MLB Picks Philadelphia Phillies vs San Francisco Giants Pick – 7/9/2025