Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres Pick – 7/12/2025

The Philadelphia Phillies travel to Petco Park to face the San Diego Padres on Saturday night. We get a terrific pitching matchup in this game. Both offenses could struggle against Zack Wheeler and Yu Darvish in this nationally televised contest. Here, I break down the pitching matchup and everything else you should know in this Phillies vs Padres prediction.

Our Phillies vs Padres Pick

• Pick: Philadelphia Phillies moneyline
• Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres
• Date & Time: Saturday, July 12, 2025, 9:40 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Zack Wheeler vs Yu Darvish
• Stadium: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
• Broadcast: FOX

Key Storylines

• Pitching form: Zack Wheeler is 9-3 so far in 2025. He is among the league leaders with a 2.17 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. Yu Darvish makes his second start of the season after elbow inflammation sidelined him to start the year. Darvish gave up two runs in 3.2 innings against the Diamondbacks in his first start of the year.
• Bullpen usage: If this game comes down to the bullpens San Diego will have the advantage. The Padres are second in the league in bullpen ERA and are better than the Phillies in that area of the game.
• Recent team streaks: The Phillies have lost three of their last four games. They dropped the opening game of this series 4-2 on Friday. The Padres have won two games in a row and three of their last four.
• Head-to-Head: The season series between these teams is tied 2-2 after San Diego’s win on Friday night.

Best Player Props

Phillies vs Padres Model Projection

• Score Projection: Phillies 5 – Padres 3
• Win Probability: Phillies 65%, Padres 35%

Final Thoughts

This game would be tougher to call if Yu Darvish was healthy and operating at a high level. But Darvish is still working his way back from injury. That should give the advantage to Wheeler and the Phillies. Expect the Phillies to take a lead in the first five innings of this game and for their bullpen to do just enough to help them get the win as a favorite on the road.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.