Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees Pick – 7/27/2025
The Philadelphia Phillies close out their weekend series at Yankee Stadium against the New York Yankees on Sunday afternoon. We get a great pitching matchup in this game. Zack Wheeler will go up against Carlos Rodon in a matchup that could decide the outcome of this game altogether. Here, I have broken this game down from all angles and you can keep reading to get my Phillies vs Yankees prediction.
Our Phillies vs Yankees Pick
- Pick: Phillies moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees
- Date & Time: Sunday, July 27, 2025, 1:35 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Zack Wheeler (Phillies) vs Carlos Rodón (Yankees)
- Stadium: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
- Broadcast: YES and NBCS‑PH
Key Storylines
- Pitching matchup: Wheeler brings a 2.46 ERA and has racked up an impressive 164 strikeouts this season. Rodón has a 10‑7 record with a 3.10 ERA but has been uneven in July.
- Playoff stakes: The Phillies trail the Mets by just half a game in the NL East. The Yankees are fading in the AL East race.
- Recent head‑to‑head: The Phillies are 2-0 against the Yankees this season and will look to secure a sweep in this contest.
Pitching matchup
Zack Wheeler has put together what is arguably a career year so far. He is 9-3 with a 2.46 ERA and has dominated in his recent starts. That includes a 10‑strikeout outing against Boston. His consistency and high strikeout rate give the Phillies an edge against most opponents. Carlos Rodón has showed signs of regression in July. He has struggled recently against quality competition such as the Mets and Blue Jays. He will be tested again in this game.
Key Players
- Kyle Schwarber: Schwarber has 36 home runs and 84 RBI this season. His left-handed power plays very well in Yankee Stadium.
- Trea Turner: The Phillies leadoff man is hitting .296 on the season and setting the table with his balance of contact and power hitting.
- Aaron Judge: Judge is set to miss some time due to injury and that could really hurt the Yankees lineup.
Recent team streaks
- The Phillies are winners of two straight games and four of their last five.
- The Yankees have lost three straight games and four of their last five.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | Home runs | Over 0.5 |
| Zack Wheeler | Strikeouts | Over 6.5 |
| Kyle Schwarber | Total bases | Over 1.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Phillies are 2-0 against the Yankees this season.
- This is the final game scheduled between these teams in the regular season.
- New York is 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- Philadelphia is 6-4 in their last 10 games.
Phillies vs Yankees Model Projection
Score Projection: Phillies 5 – Yankees 4
Win Probability: Phillies 55%, Yankees 45%
Final Thoughts
The Phillies have been better than the Yankees in just about every way in this series so far. The Phillies have been better at the plate and on the mound. And with Aaron Judge out for the Yankees going into this series finale, I don’t see a way for the Yankees to turn things around today. Expect Wheeler to have a strong start for Philly as they complete a three-game sweep of the team they lost to in the 2009 World Series.
