Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 9/21/2024

• Date: September 21, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ranger Suarez - Phillies
  • Sean Manaea - Mets

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Betting Preview

As the New York Mets host the Philadelphia Phillies on September 21, 2024, at Citi Field, the stakes are high in this National League East matchup. The Phillies, with a record of 92-62, are having a great season and are currently leading the division. Meanwhile, the Mets, at 85-69, are also performing well and are in the hunt for a playoff spot, although they trail behind the Phillies.

The pitching duel features two left-handers: Sean Manaea for the Mets and Ranger Suarez for the Phillies. Manaea, ranked as the 80th best starting pitcher in MLB, boasts a solid 11-5 record with a 3.26 ERA this season. Despite his success, his peripheral stats suggest some luck, and he may be due for a regression. On the other hand, Suarez, ranked 47th, has been impressive with a 12-7 record and a 3.13 ERA. His groundball-heavy approach could neutralize the Mets' powerful offense, which ranks 6th in home runs.

Offensively, the Phillies have the edge, ranking 4th in both overall performance and batting average. The Mets, while also strong, rank 8th overall and 9th in batting average. Bryce Harper has been a standout for the Phillies recently, hitting three home runs and driving in seven runs over his last seven games. Tyrone Taylor has been hot for the Mets, with a .438 batting average over the past week.

Both teams are evenly matched according to the betting markets, with identical moneylines and implied win probabilities. However, the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, gives the Phillies a slight edge with a 53% win probability. With both teams' playoffs aspirations in the balance, this game promises to be a closely contested affair.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Because flyball pitchers hold a significant advantage over flyball hitters, Ranger Suarez and his 50.4% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a strong position in this outing squaring off against 3 opposing FB hitters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Weston Wilson's true offensive talent to be a .285, providing some evidence that he has been lucky this year given the .079 disparity between that figure and his actual .364 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The Philadelphia Phillies have been the 9th-luckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse the rest of the season

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Sean Manaea's higher usage rate of his fastball this year (55.1 vs. 49.5% last season) is not ideal considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

J.D. Martinez has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (86% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the batting order today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets' bullpen profiles as the 8th-worst out of all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 31 of their last 46 games at home (+14.75 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 44 games (+15.35 Units / 29% ROI)
• Kyle Schwarber has hit the Walks Under in 20 of his last 35 games (+8.60 Units / 23% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.1 vs New York Mets 3.65

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