Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Pick – 8/26/2025
The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets will play in the second game of a huge three-game series from Queens on Tuesday night. The Mets won the first round of this rivalry series by double-digits. They will look for a similar showing offensively to pull closer to the Phillies in the race for the NL East title tonight. Before these division rivals do battle again, continue reading to get my Phillies vs Mets prediction for the night.
Our Phillies vs Mets Pick
- Pick: Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline
- Confidence: 4/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets
- Date & Time: Tuesday, August 26, 2025, 7:10 PM
- Starting Pitchers: Sean Manaea (1‑2, 5.15 ERA) vs Jesús Luzardo (12‑6, 4.10 ERA)
- Stadium: Citi Field, Queens, NY
- Broadcast: TBS
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
New York turns to Sean Manaea to start this game. Manaea carries a 5.15 ERA into this start and has struggled to produce wins. His team is just 1‑5 this season in his starts and could really use a win with him on the bump tonight. Jesus Luzardo offers more consistency than Manaea with 12 victories and a respectable ERA. The Phillies have the edge in starting pitching tonight but the Mets’ explosive lineup could nullify that edge.
Key Players
- Luis Torrens had five RBI for the Mets on Monday and contributions from role players like him would be great for New York to get down the stretch.
- Alec Bohm knocked in two of Philadelphia’s three runs in yesterday’s loss to the Mets.
Recent team streaks
The Phillies are 3-2 over their last five games. They had a two-game winning streak snapped by the Mets last night. New York has won three of its last four games and will aim for a second consecutive victory tonight.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
| Juan Soto | Under 1.5 Total Bases |
| Jesús Luzardo | Under 6.5 Strikeouts |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Mets lead their season series against the Phillies 5-2 coming into tonight’s game.
- The first game of this three-game series flew over its total with 16 total runs scored.
- Philadelphia is 34-33 on the road this year and will look to stay above .500 on the road with a win tonight.
- New York is 42-24 at home in 2025.
Phillies vs Mets Model Projection
Score Projection: Phillies 5 – Mets 3
Win Probability: Phillies 52%, Mets 48%
Final Thoughts
Starting pitching is going to be a key to this matchup between the Mets and Phillies. Luzardo is the more reliable starter heading into this contest and he should give the Phillies the edge. I will take Philadelphia to win this game on the moneyline with pick ’em odds on both sides of this huge game in the NL East title race.
