Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Betting Pick & Preview – 9/20/2024

• Date: September 20, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cristopher Sanchez - Phillies
  • David Peterson - Mets

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets and the Philadelphia Phillies clash at Citi Field on September 20, 2024, in a crucial National League East matchup. The Phillies, sporting a stellar 91-62 record, are having a great season and look to solidify their position at the top of the division. Meanwhile, the Mets, at 85-68, are still in the race and are keen to secure a Wild Card spot.

Yesterday's game saw the Mets secure a comfortable victory against the Phillies. But the Phillies still have Bryce Harper leading the charge; he has been on a tear over the past week, tallying a .280 batting average with 3 home runs and 7 RBIs. Harper's recent surge will be vital against David Peterson, the Mets’ left-handed starter with a solid 2.85 ERA this year. However, his peripheral stats suggest that he might regress.

On the mound for the Phillies is Cristopher Sanchez, who stands as the 21st-best starting pitcher according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. With a 3.24 ERA and a knack for inducing ground balls, he faces a potent Mets offense ranking 5th in MLB with 198 home runs. Although Citi Field is known for being pitcher-friendly, Sanchez’s ability to keep the ball on the ground may neutralize the Mets’ power.

Betting markets have this as a toss-up, but THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Phillies a slight edge with a 56% win probability. Their bullpen, ranked 8th in MLB, compared to the Mets' 21st-ranked bullpen, could be decisive in tight late-game situations.

Both teams are projected to score around 3.75 runs, indicating a low-scoring affair. Given the current projections, there is potential value in backing the Phillies to continue their winning ways in what promises to be a pivotal game in the playoff race.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Cristopher Sanchez has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his strikeouts this year, compiling a 7.43 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 8.13 — a 0.7 K/9 gap.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

In the past week, Trea Turner's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.8% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen profiles as the 8th-best in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

David Peterson's 2141-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 22nd percentile out of all SPs.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Tyrone Taylor has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 97.8-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 87.6-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Mark Vientos hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 61 of their last 94 games (+21.20 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 43 of their last 65 games (+19.50 Units / 25% ROI)
• J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Under in his last 7 games (+10.10 Units / 144% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.25 vs New York Mets 3.53

Stay informed with the most recent MLB news and our analytics-driven MLB picks and predictions all season long.