Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 7/24/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins Details

• Date: July 24, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Aaron Nola - Phillies
  • Steven Okert - Twins

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

The Minnesota Twins and Philadelphia Phillies clash at Target Field on July 24, 2024, in the third game of their interleague series. The Phillies, riding high with a 64-37 record, are having a great season and lead their division. The Twins, at 55-45, are also performing well but face a tougher path to the playoffs. The Phillies won the previous game 3-0, showcasing their dominance and extending their current hot streak.

On the mound for the Twins will be left-hander Steven Okert, making his first start of the season after 34 bullpen appearances. Okert has been somewhat unlucky this year, with a 4.40 ERA but a more promising 3.48 xERA, suggesting he might perform better than his surface stats indicate. However, his projections for today are less than encouraging, with just 1.0 innings pitched, 0.6 earned runs, and 1.1 strikeouts on average.

Opposing him will be Aaron Nola, the Phillies' ace who boasts an 11-4 record and a solid 3.54 ERA over 20 starts. Nola is ranked as the 19th best starting pitcher in MLB, and his projections indicate another strong outing, with 5.8 innings pitched, 2.5 earned runs, and 6.6 strikeouts on average.

The Phillies' offense, ranked 5th in MLB, will be a tough test for Okert. They have the 3rd best team batting average and 6th most home runs, making them a potent lineup. The Twins' offense is no slouch either, ranking 4th overall with the 5th best team batting average and 7th most home runs. However, their 25th ranking in stolen bases indicates a lack of speed on the basepaths.

Despite the Twins being underdogs with a moneyline of +130 and an implied win probability of 42%, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives them a 47% chance to win. This suggests there might be value in betting on the Twins, especially considering public reluctance to back underdogs. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating an average scoring affair.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

The Minnesota Twins have 7 batters in the projected lineup that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Aaron Nola today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Kyle Schwarber has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.6-mph to 96-mph over the past two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Philadelphia Phillies projected batting order ranks as the 4th-strongest of all teams today in terms of overall offensive ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

The Minnesota Twins infield defense profiles as the 4th-weakest among every team on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

When it comes to his home runs, Byron Buxton has had bad variance on his side this year. His 23.3 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been considerably lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 31.9.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Minnesota Twins' bullpen ranks as the 7th-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 22 games at home (+8.55 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 56 of their last 89 games (+18.70 Units / 12% ROI)
• Bryce Harper has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 26 games (+11.05 Units / 34% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.91 vs Minnesota Twins 4.17

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