Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 7/22/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins Details

• Date: July 22, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ranger Suarez - Phillies
  • Bailey Ober - Twins

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to host the Philadelphia Phillies on July 22, 2024, at Target Field, both teams are having impressive seasons. The Phillies, with a record of 63-36, are enjoying a fantastic year, while the Twins are holding their own with a solid 54-44 record. This Interleague matchup is the first in a series and pits two teams with high playoff aspirations against each other.

The Phillies come into this game as the betting favorites with a moneyline of -140, giving them an implied win probability of 56%. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sees this as a closer contest, projecting the Phillies with a 54% win probability. Given these projections, the Phillies appear to have a slight edge, but the Twins should not be counted out.

The Twins will start Bailey Ober, a right-handed pitcher currently ranked as the 38th best starting pitcher in MLB by advanced-stat Power Rankings. Ober has been reliable this season, contributing significantly to the Twins' success. On the other side, the Phillies will counter with Ranger Suarez, a left-handed pitcher ranked 37th, just a notch above Ober. Both pitchers are considered good, making this a compelling pitching duel.

Offensively, the Phillies have a slight advantage. They rank 3rd in team batting average and 6th in home runs, showcasing a potent lineup capable of producing runs in bunches. The Twins, with their 6th ranked team batting average and 7th ranked home run total, are no slouches either. However, their 25th rank in stolen bases indicates a more station-to-station approach compared to the Phillies' 4th rank in stolen bases, which adds another dimension to their offense.

Nick Castellanos has been the standout hitter for the Phillies over the last week, boasting a .333 batting average and a 1.108 OPS in four games. His recent hot streak could be a crucial factor in this game.

The betting odds suggest a game total of 8.0 runs, indicating an average scoring game. Based on the current odds, the Twins have an implied team total of 3.73 runs, while the Phillies are projected at 4.27 runs. However, THE BAT X projects slightly higher scoring, with the Twins at 4.36 runs and the Phillies at 5.03 runs.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Given that flyball pitchers are hit hardest by groundball hitters, Ranger Suarez (51.4% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in today's game with 2 GB hitters in Minnesota's projected lineup.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Hitters such as Johan Rojas with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Bailey Ober who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The 3rd-best projected batting order of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive skill belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Bailey Ober's higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this season (61.1% compared to 54.3% last year) should work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Willi Castro is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 64% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Minnesota Twins' bullpen profiles as the 6th-best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 18 games at home (+8.90 Units / 40% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 60 of their last 94 games (+19.15 Units / 16% ROI)
• Carlos Santana has hit the Walks Over in 13 of his last 24 games (+8.80 Units / 37% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 5.03 vs Minnesota Twins 4.25

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