Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction – 9/4/2025
The Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers will close out their three-game set on Thursday afternoon in Milwaukee. Both clubs sit atop their divisions and have taken a game apiece in this series so far. This rubber match will allow the winner to make a statement in what could be a preview of this year’s NLCS. Before the action begins from American Family Field, continue reading to get my Phillies vs Brewers prediction.
Our Phillies vs Brewers Pick
- Pick: Brewers moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers
- Date & Time: Thursday, September 4, 2025, 4:10 PM
- Starting Pitchers: Ranger Suárez (PHI) vs Freddy Peralta (MIL)
- Stadium: American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
- Broadcast: MLB Network
Key Storylines
Pitching Matchup
- Ranger Suárez (PHI): Suarez enters this game with a record of 10-6, a 3.02 ERA, and a 1.17 WHIP across 131 innings. He has allowed just 10 home runs this season and his ability to keep the ball in the yard will be a key for the Phillies in this contest.
- Freddy Peralta (MIL): Peralta has been spectacular for the Brewers this year. He is 16-5 with a 2.58 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP over 153.2 innings of work. Peralta still has a shot to win 20 games this year and could move closer to that number with a win here.
Playoff Picture
- Philadelphia leads the NL East and they are 5.5 games ahead of the second-place New York Mets.
- The Brewers are at the top of the NL Central and they are six games up on the second-place Chicago Cubs.
- Milwaukee is five games ahead of the Phillies in the loss column and will try to move closer to clinching the best record in the National League before the postseason.
Recent Team Streaks
- The Phillies have lost two of their last three games going into this matchup.
- Milwaukee snapped a two-game losing streak with their win over the Phillies yesterday.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| Freddy Peralta | Over 7.5 Strikeouts |
| Bryce Harper | Under 1.5 Total Bases |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Brewers lead the season series 4-1 over the Phillies.
- Every game between these teams has been decided by two runs or more this year.
- Both games in this three-game series have gone over their respective totals.
Phillies vs Brewers Model Projection
Score Projection: Brewers 5 – Phillies 3
Win Probability: Brewers 58%, Phillies 42%
Final Thoughts
Both of these teams have had very good seasons but only one of them can win this game and take this three-game series. I think that team will be the Milwaukee Brewers. Peralta has been great on the mound this year and would likely be in the Cy Young race in any year where Paul Skenes didn’t exist. I expect Peralta to have another good showing and for the Brew Crew to win another big game at home.
