Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Pick & Preview – 9/16/2024

• Date: September 16, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ranger Suarez - Phillies
  • Aaron Civale - Brewers

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to host the Philadelphia Phillies on September 16, 2024, both teams are in strong positions in the playoff race, with the Brewers sitting at 86-63 and the Phillies at 90-59. This matchup marks the first game of their series, and with both teams having solid seasons, fans can expect an exciting contest at American Family Field.

In their previous outing, the Brewers showcased their offensive prowess despite losing to the Arizona Diamondbacks, with William Contreras leading the way, contributing significantly to their recent success. He has been particularly hot, batting .375 over the last week, with 6 hits, 4 runs, and 6 RBIs in just 5 games. This offensive momentum will be crucial as they face Ranger Suarez, who has been effective this season, holding a 12-6 record and a stellar 3.05 ERA. However, Suarez's tendency to limit walks (5.8 BB% this year) may challenge the Brewers, who rank 2nd in MLB for walks drawn.

On the other hand, Aaron Civale will take the mound for the Brewers. His performance will be critical, especially against a potent Phillies lineup that ranks 4th in MLB offensively. Despite their strong hitting, the projections indicate a potential struggle for the Phillies against Rea, who aims to capitalize on their weaknesses.

With a Game Total set at 8.0 runs, this matchup is expected to be closely contested. Betting markets reflect this sentiment, with the Brewers' moneyline at -105 and the Phillies at -115. This game has the potential to swing either way, making it an intriguing prospect for bettors and fans alike.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Given the 0.88 gap between Ranger Suarez's 8.70 K/9 and his 7.81 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in baseball this year when it comes to strikeouts and should see negative regression in future games.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

When it comes to his home runs, Bryce Harper has had positive variance on his side this year. His 29.1 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 22.1.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Today, Kyle Schwarber is at a disadvantage facing the league's 7th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 39.7% rate (98th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense projects as the best out of every team on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Brice Turang is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 62% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

It may be smart to expect weaker performance for the Milwaukee Brewers offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the luckiest offense in baseball this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 84 of their last 147 games (+9.55 Units / 5% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 39 of their last 60 games (+15.85 Units / 22% ROI)
• William Contreras has hit the Walks Over in 23 of his last 42 games (+15.00 Units / 36% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 5.50 vs Milwaukee Brewers 5.02

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