Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Prediction & Picks 9/8/2024

• Date: September 8, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Seth Johnson - Phillies
  • Edward Cabrera - Marlins

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

On September 8, 2024, the Miami Marlins will host the Philadelphia Phillies at LoanDepot Park in what’s shaping up to be an intriguing matchup. The Marlins are having a rough season with a record of 53-89, while the Phillies stand at a strong 85-57, making this an important game for the visitors as they aim to solidify their playoff position.

Edward Cabrera is set to take the mound for the Marlins. Despite holding an average Power Ranking at #104 among starting pitchers, his 5.33 ERA suggests he has struggled throughout the season. He is a high-groundball pitcher (48 GB%), which could help him against a powerful Phillies offense that has hit 124 home runs this year, ranking them 6th in MLB. However, Cabrera also has a high walk rate of 12.4% and the Phillies boast one of the most patient offenses, which could capitalize on his control issues.

In contrast, Seth Johnson is projected to start for the Phillies, but his performance this season has placed him among the lower-tier pitchers in the league. He averages only 4.4 innings per start and has shown a tendency to allow 4.6 hits and 1.6 walks per game, both of which are concerning numbers.

While the projections show the Marlins averaging 4.35 runs, they remain ranked 29th in offense, particularly struggling to hit home runs, sitting at 29th in that category as well. In contrast, the Phillies' offense is ranked 4th overall and has been performing exceptionally. With the game total set at a manageable 8.5 runs, it seems the Phillies’ robust lineup and better pitching should give them the edge in this matchup.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Kyle Schwarber has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 94.1-mph to 96.8-mph over the last two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

In today's game, Kyle Schwarber is at a disadvantage facing the league's 4th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 39.7% rate (98th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Edward Cabrera has tallied 14.2 outs per start this year, grading out in the 9th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Despite posting a .357 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Xavier Edwards has had positive variance on his side given the .057 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .300.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The Miami Marlins have 4 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Griffin Conine, Kyle Stowers, Jake Burger, Connor Norby).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 34 of their last 50 games (+17.20 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 42 of their last 70 games (+11.40 Units / 14% ROI)
• Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 21 away games (+8.90 Units / 18% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.96 vs Miami Marlins 4.61

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.