Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Pick – 9/6/2025
Philadelphia heads to South Florida for a Saturday matinee against the Miami Marlins. With first pitch set for 4:10 p.m. ET at loanDepot park, the Phillies arrive with a top-5 pitching staff and a lineup powered by Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper. Miami leans on young bats and hopes a home setting plus a big arm on the mound can steady things. Here, I break down this game and give you my Phillies vs Marlins prediction for Saturday’s game.
Our Phillies vs Marlins Pick
- Pick: Over 8.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 6, 2025, 4:10 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers:
- Phillies: Jesús Luzardo
- Marlins: Sandy Alcantara
- Stadium: loanDepot park, Miami, FL
- Broadcast: NBC Sports Philadelphia, FD Sports Florida
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Jesús Luzardo projects to bring upper-90s heat and a swing-and-miss slider into a building where strikeouts carry added value due to the spacious alleys. His 12-6 record with a 4.05 ERA is supported by strikeout volume that travels. Miami’s order features contact-first pieces, but recent swing rates against elite velocity have created strikeouts. If Luzardo is around the zone early and gets ahead with his fastball, his breaking stuff should finish at-bats.
Sandy Alcantara owns ace-level history, but his 2025 has been uneven. The sinker shape still generates weak contact when located, yet misses in the zone have led to crooked numbers for opponents. Philadelphia’s core is built to extend counts and punish mistakes. The Phillies also profile well vs right-handed pitching overall this season.
Recent team streaks
- The Phillies have won two games in a row and three of their last four.
- Miami has lost four straight games coming into this matchup.
Best Player Props
| Pick |
|---|
| Kyle Schwarber to hit a HR |
| Jesús Luzardo over 6.5 K |
| Trea Turner over 1.5 TB |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Season series: The Phillies lead the 2025 head-to-head 6-2 over the Marlins
- Momentum: Philadelphia enters on a winning streak and Miami has dropped far more than it has won over the last 25 games.
Phillies vs Marlins Model Projection
Score Projection: Phillies 5 – Marlins 4
Win Probability: Phillies 64%, Marlins 36%
Final Thoughts
The analytical edges stack up cleanly. Philadelphia holds the better pitching staff, the steadier lineup, and the more favorable outlook in this spot. Luzardo’s swing-and-miss profile plays in Miami, while Alcantara’s 2025 inconsistency runs into a patient, powerful top of the order. The park should mute extreme scoring, but it also rewards the team less reliant on the long ball to create runs. I think we will get over 8.5 runs in this contest thanks primarily to the struggles of Alcantara against a potent Philadelphia lineup.
