Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction & Picks 8/6/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers Details

• Date: August 6, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cristopher Sanchez - Phillies
  • Clayton Kershaw - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

As the Los Angeles Dodgers prepare to host the Philadelphia Phillies on August 6, 2024, both teams find themselves in a tight race for supremacy in the National League. The Dodgers hold a record of 65-47, while the Phillies sit slightly ahead at 66-45. A victory in this matchup could have significant implications for both squads as they look to solidify their playoff positions.

In their last game, the Dodgers secured a 5-3 win over the Phillies, showcasing their potent offense, which ranks as the 4th best in MLB. Teoscar Hernandez has emerged as a standout hitter during the past week, boasting a .316 batting average and a .960 OPS while hitting 6 hits and scoring 4 runs in that span. The Dodgers' offensive prowess will certainly be a factor as they face a solid pitcher in Cristopher Sanchez.

Sanchez, projected to pitch against Clayton Kershaw, has demonstrated strong performance this season, holding a 3.36 ERA and a 7-7 record over 21 starts. While Kershaw, who has struggled with a 5.87 ERA this season, is ranked as the 26th best starting pitcher in MLB, his projected performance suggests he may experience some luck in the near future. Both pitchers are left-handed, which could influence the dynamics of this matchup.

Additionally, the projections indicate that Sanchez's strong groundball rate could neutralize the Dodgers' power hitters, who have already blasted 139 home runs this year. Offensively, the Phillies are no slouches either; their lineup boasts a 7th best ranking in MLB and a 3rd best batting average. With a game total set at 8.0 runs, this matchup promises to be competitive, and the team with the best chance of capitalizing on weaknesses may emerge victorious.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Cristopher Sanchez's fastball velocity has spiked 2.1 mph this year (93.7 mph) over where it was last year (91.6 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Over the last 14 days, J.T. Realmuto's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.2% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The 4th-best projected offense of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive ability belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Clayton Kershaw to throw 80 pitches in this matchup (3rd-least of the day), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Shohei Ohtani has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 98.8-mph average in the past two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 95.6-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen ranks as the 8th-best in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.60 Units / 40% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 55 of their last 92 games (+14.50 Units / 9% ROI)
• Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 41 games (+8.90 Units / 12% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.63 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 4.89

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.