The Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers will close out their regular-season series Wednesday night at Dodger Stadium. The Phillies (91-61) already clinched the NL East and are jockeying for home-field advantage. The Dodgers (84-67) need every win they can get to stay atop the NL West. Here, I take a closer look at this huge National League matchup and bring you my Phillies vs Dodgers prediction for the night.
Our Phillies vs Dodgers Pick
- Pick: Dodgers moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Dodgers
- Date & Time: Wednesday, September 17, 2025, 10:10 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Jesús Luzardo vs Blake Snell
- Stadium: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
- Broadcast: MLB Network
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Jesus Luzardo has had a strong season for the Phillies. His ERA is over 4.00, showing some inconsistency, but Luzardo is racking up the strikeouts this season. He is coming off a start against the Mets in which he struck out double digits despite giving up four runs over eight innings. Luzardo has 200 total strikeouts this season and will try to lead his team to a big win here.
LA’s Blake Snell has been much steady. He has a sub-3.00 ERA, solid recent outings, and success at home to this point in the season. Snell is also averaging over a strikeout per inning on the season and will try to miss some Philadelphia bats in this game.
Recent team streaks
- The Phillies have won two games in a row and they have won four of their last five contests.
- The Dodgers have dropped two games in a row and they are 2-3 in their last five.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop Type | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | Home Runs | Over 0.5 |
| Kyle Schwarber | Home Runs | Over 0.5 |
| Blake Snell | Strikeouts | Over 5.5 |
| Jesus Luzardo | Strikeouts | Over 5.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Phillies hold a 4-1 lead in the season series against the Dodgers.
- The Phillies have won three straight games over Los Angeles.
- The Phillies are 40-37 on the road for the season.
- The Dodgers are 48-28 at home in 2025.
Phillies vs Dodgers Model Projection
Score Projection: Dodgers 5 – Phillies 3
Win Probability: Dodgers 60%, Phillies 40%
Final Thoughts
This is a very important game for both teams. The Phillies are trying to lock down the best record in the league by outperforming the Brewers and Dodgers down the stretch. And the Dodgers are trying desperately to hold onto the lead in the NL West. But only one of these teams can move closer to achieving those goals with a win here.
I think that team will be the Dodgers. They have a starting pitcher in Snell who is used to pitching on big stages and has slightly better individual numbers than Luzardo in 2025. I’ll go with the Dodgers to win this contest and avoid a sweep at the hands of the Phillies.
