Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Pick – 8/7/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers Details

• Date: August 7, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tyler Phillips - Phillies
  • Gavin Stone - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

On August 7, 2024, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the Philadelphia Phillies in what promises to be an exciting matchup at Dodger Stadium. Both teams enter this game boasting impressive records of 66-47 for the Dodgers and 66-46 for the Phillies, making this series critical as they seek to solidify their positions in the playoff race.

The Dodgers are coming off a challenging game, and they will look to turn things around behind right-handed pitcher Gavin Stone, who has had a solid season with a 3.63 ERA. However, his underlying metrics raise some concerns, particularly his 4.19 xFIP, which suggests he might not sustain his current performance level. Stone has shown good control with a low walk rate of 6.6 BB%, giving him an edge against a Phillies offense that ranks 4th in walks drawn. He is projected to pitch 5.1 innings, allowing an average of 2.8 earned runs and striking out 4.6 batters.

On the other side, the Phillies will counter with Tyler Phillips, also a right-handed pitcher. Phillips has had a rocky start to the season with a 4.39 ERA, and projections indicate he may struggle against the potent Dodgers lineup, which ranks 4th in MLB offensively. Despite posting a decent Win/Loss record of 3-1, Phillips's 5.15 FIP raises red flags, indicating he may be in for a challenging outing. He is expected to pitch 5.0 innings but could allow 3.4 earned runs, a problematic scenario against the Dodgers’ offense.

Given that the Dodgers' lineup has been firing on all cylinders, highlighted by their robust offensive capabilities, they are favored in this matchup. With an implied team total of 4.76 runs, they will look to capitalize on Phillips' weaknesses and regain momentum in the series. Meanwhile, the Phillies must find a way to break through the Dodgers' solid bullpen, currently ranked 8th in MLB, in a huge game in the National League.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

When estimating his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Tyler Phillips in the 10th percentile among all starters in Major League Baseball.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Trea Turner's average exit velocity has declined recently; his 89.1-mph seasonal average has decreased to 79.7-mph over the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The 4th-best projected lineup on the slate today in terms of overall offensive ability belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

In his previous outing, Gavin Stone conceded a staggering 5 earned runs.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (6.8) suggests that Kike Hernandez has been lucky this year with his 13.3 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen ranks as the 8th-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 33 games at home (+8.70 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 64 of their last 107 games (+17.10 Units / 9% ROI)
• Shohei Ohtani has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 24 games at home (+10.55 Units / 32% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 5.07 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.57

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