Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Pick & Preview – 8/5/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers Details

• Date: August 5, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Aaron Nola - Phillies
  • Tyler Glasnow - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

As the Los Angeles Dodgers prepare to host the Philadelphia Phillies on August 5, 2024, both teams are enjoying strong seasons, with the Dodgers sitting at 65-47 and the Phillies at 66-45. This matchup marks the beginning of a crucial series between two playoff contenders, both looking to solidify their positions in the postseason race.

In their last game, the Dodgers put on a solid display, defeating the Oakland Athletics, which should boost their confidence heading into this matchup. Tyler Glasnow, projected to start for the Dodgers, is having an impressive season and ranks as the 7th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. His 3.50 ERA is solid, and he projects to strike out an average of 7.4 batters today, although he does face challenges with a high average of 4.7 hits allowed.

On the other side, Aaron Nola will take the mound for the Phillies. Nola, who ranks 27th among starting pitchers, has been effective with an ERA of 3.43. He projects to allow an average of 2.9 earned runs and strike out 6.0 batters, but he might struggle against the Dodgers’ high-walk offense, which ranks 2nd in MLB in drawing walks.

Offensively, the Dodgers rank 4th in MLB, boasting a powerful lineup that includes Teoscar Hernandez, who has been the standout hitter over the last week. The Phillies also bring a potent offense, currently 8th in MLB rankings. However, the game total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating a potentially close contest.

With the Dodgers' strong bullpen ranked 8th and the Phillies' at 9th, this matchup promises to be exciting. The projections suggest the Dodgers have a slight edge, making them an appealing option for bettors looking to capitalize on their current form.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Compared to the average starter, Aaron Nola has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an extra 4.7 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

The best projected batting order of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Tyler Glasnow has utilized his off-speed and breaking pitches 11.7% less often this season (44.8%) than he did last season (56.5%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen profiles as the 8th-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 35 games at home (+6.20 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 62 of their last 104 games (+16.10 Units / 9% ROI)
• Trea Turner has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+11.30 Units / 49% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.45 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 4.82

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