Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers Prediction, Odds & Picks – 6/24/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers Details

• Date: June 24, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Aaron Nola - Phillies
  • Casey Mize - Tigers

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

As the Detroit Tigers prepare to host the Philadelphia Phillies on June 24, 2024, at Comerica Park, the matchup features two teams at different ends of the performance spectrum this season. The Tigers, with a 36-41 record, are enduring a below-average season, while the Phillies, boasting a 51-26 record, are having a terrific campaign and sit comfortably among the top teams in MLB.

The Tigers will send Casey Mize to the mound. Mize, who has a 1-5 record and a 4.43 ERA over 14 starts, has shown signs of potential bad luck with a 3.81 FIP suggesting better results could be on the horizon. Despite his average ERA, Mize's ability to limit walks (6.3 BB%) and induce ground balls (49% GB rate) could be key against a powerful Phillies lineup that ranks 5th in MLB with 92 home runs. If Mize can keep the ball on the ground, he may neutralize some of Philadelphia's strength.

The Phillies counter with Aaron Nola, who has been excellent this season with an 8-3 record and a 3.54 ERA. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Nola is ranked as the 29th best starting pitcher in MLB, which underscores his effectiveness. Nola's ability to limit earned runs and strike out batters (6.0 K projection for this game) should play well against a struggling Tigers offense that ranks 27th overall and 25th in both batting average and home runs.

Philadelphia's offense, anchored by Bryce Harper who has been scorching over the last week (.462 AVG, 1.405 OPS), is a stark contrast to Detroit's. Harper's recent hot streak includes 12 hits, 7 runs, and 3 home runs over six games. This potent lineup, combined with a strong bullpen ranked 4th, gives the Phillies a considerable edge.

Detroit's bullpen, ranked 14th, has been average, and they'll need to be at their best to support Mize and contain the high-powered Phillies offense. Given the disparity in team performance and pitching matchups, the Tigers face a tough challenge. The betting odds reflect this, with Detroit as underdogs with a moneyline of +145, translating to an implied win probability of 40%.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Compared to league average, Aaron Nola has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an extra 5.5 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen grades out as the 4th-best in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

The Philadelphia Phillies have 6 hitters in the projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage against Casey Mize in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Riley Greene's batting average skill is projected to be in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

In today's matchup, Zach McKinstry is at a disadvantage facing the league's 2nd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40.2% rate (99th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 42 games (+8.15 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 42 of their last 61 games (+19.30 Units / 24% ROI)
• Matt Vierling has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+13.80 Units / 47% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 5.01 vs Detroit Tigers 4.17

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