Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction, Odds, Picks – 4/24/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds Overview

• Date: April 24, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Spencer Turnbull - Phillies
  • Nick Lodolo - Reds
• Run Line: Phillies -1.5 155, Reds 1.5 -180
• Money Line: Phillies -110, Reds -110
• Total (Over/Under): 8.5

Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Philadelphia Phillies - 50%
• Cincinnati Reds - 50%

Projected Win %:

• Philadelphia Phillies - 43.67%
• Cincinnati Reds - 56.33%

Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds Game Preview & Prediction

The Cincinnati Reds are set to face off against the Philadelphia Phillies on April 24, 2024, at Great American Ball Park. As the home team, the Reds will be aiming to continue their impressive season with a record of 13-10. On the other hand, the Phillies have been having a great season with a record of 15-9. This National League matchup is the third game in their series.

The Reds are projected to start left-handed pitcher Nick Lodolo, who has been performing exceptionally well this year. Lodolo has started two games with a perfect 2-0 record and an impressive 0.75 ERA. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Lodolo is ranked as the #26 best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers, making him a great asset for the Reds.

On the mound for the Phillies will be right-handed pitcher Spencer Turnbull. While Turnbull has a solid 2-0 record and a remarkable 1.23 ERA this season, our advanced-stat Power Rankings consider him a below-average pitcher. With a projected average of 5.0 innings pitched per game, Turnbull's performance may be a key factor for the Phillies.

In terms of offense, the Reds rank as the 19th best in MLB, while the Phillies sit at #12. The Reds lead the league in stolen bases, which could pose a threat to the Phillies' defense. The Phillies, however, have a stronger team batting average, ranking 8th in the league. Both teams have been performing at an average level overall.

When it comes to the bullpen, the Reds rank 19th best in MLB, while the Phillies rank 24th. This could be an area of concern for both teams, as a solid bullpen is crucial for securing a win.

Based on the current odds, the Reds have a higher implied win probability of 51% compared to the Phillies' 49%. The Game Total for today's matchup is set at 8.5 runs, indicating an average scoring expectation.

With the Reds having a slight edge in both their record and the projected performance of their starting pitcher, they may have a slight advantage in this game. However, as betting markets anticipate a close game, it could be an exciting matchup to watch.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Compared to the average pitcher, Spencer Turnbull has been granted less leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, recording an -11.0 fewer adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Nick Castellanos has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (88% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Kyle Schwarber pulls many of his flyballs (39.8% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

With 8 hitters of the opposite hand in the opposing team's projected lineup, Nick Lodolo will have a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Whalloping 5 home runs over the last 14 days, Elly De La Cruz has been on fire lately.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

The Cincinnati Reds have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Will Benson, Elly De La Cruz, Christian Encarnacion-Strand).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 72 games (+16.80 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Run Line in 35 of their last 64 games (+8.95 Units / 12% ROI)

Phillies vs Reds Prediction: Phillies 4.21 - Reds 4.55

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