Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs Prediction & Picks 7/4/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs Details

• Date: July 4, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cristopher Sanchez - Phillies
  • Jameson Taillon - Cubs

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the Philadelphia Phillies on July 4, 2024, at Wrigley Field, the contrast in their seasons couldn’t be starker. The Cubs, struggling with a 39-48 record, face a tough challenge against a red-hot Phillies team boasting a 57-29 mark. Despite the disparity, betting markets expect a close game, with the Cubs' moneyline at +110 (46% implied win probability) and the Phillies at -130 (54% implied win probability). Interestingly, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sees this differently, projecting a 53% win probability for the Cubs.

On the mound, the Cubs will start Jameson Taillon, a right-hander with a solid 3.03 ERA but an underlying 4.32 xFIP indicating potential regression. Taillon's 4-4 record in 13 starts suggests he’s been serviceable, though his projected 5.6 innings, 2.5 earned runs, and 4.5 strikeouts for this game are merely average. Notably, Taillon's high-flyball rate (39%) may be problematic against a powerful Phillies offense ranked 5th in home runs this season.

Opposing Taillon is Cristopher Sanchez, an excellent left-hander with a 2.41 ERA. However, his 2.99 xFIP hints at some luck. Sanchez, with a 6-3 record in 16 starts, projects similarly to Taillon in terms of innings (5.3) and earned runs (2.5), but his control (6.4 BB%) may stifle the Cubs’ offense, which is 4th in walks this season.

Offensively, the Cubs rank 22nd overall, struggling particularly in batting average (24th) and home runs (20th). They’ve been buoyed by Ian Happ’s recent performance, including a 1.164 OPS, 6 runs, and 2 home runs over the last week. The Phillies, conversely, are 4th overall in offense, excelling in batting average (3rd), home runs (5th), and stolen bases (4th). Rafael Marchan has been their standout over the past week, posting a 1.242 OPS and 2 home runs.

In the bullpen, the Phillies hold a distinct advantage with a 6th-ranked unit compared to the Cubs’ 16th-ranked bullpen. This edge could be crucial in a game projected to be tight and low-scoring, with a total of just 7.5 runs.

Given the Cubs’ recent struggles and Taillon’s flyball tendency against Philadelphia's powerful lineup, the Cubs will need to capitalize on any opportunities presented by Sanchez's slight regression indicators. THE BAT X’s projection of a 53% win probability for Chicago suggests there might be value in betting against the grain in this Independence Day matchup.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Cristopher Sanchez's 93.8-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a substantial 2.2-mph spike from last year's 91.6-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Brandon Marsh is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Garrett Stubbs, the Phillies's expected catcher in today's game, projects as a horrible pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Jameson Taillon has tallied 17.2 outs per outing this year, ranking in the 78th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Dansby Swanson has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 94.8-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 90.1-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Chicago's 92.9-mph exit velocity on flyballs makes them the #6 offense in baseball this year by this stat.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 27 of their last 42 games (+11.80 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 48 of their last 69 games (+22.85 Units / 25% ROI)
• Nico Hoerner has hit the Total Bases Under in 23 of his last 29 games (+13.45 Units / 27% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.81 vs Chicago Cubs 4.79

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