Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs Prediction – 4/25/2025

Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the Philadelphia Phillies on April 25, 2025, both teams come into this matchup with contrasting momentum. The Cubs are riding high after a thrilling 7-6 victory over the LA Dodgers in their last outing on April 23, while the Phillies are looking to bounce back from a narrow 4-3 loss. This game marks the first in a series between these two National League rivals, adding an extra layer of excitement.

Currently, the Cubs hold a solid 16-10 record, showcasing one of the most potent offenses in MLB, ranking 1st in team batting average and 3rd in home runs. In contrast, the Phillies sit at 13-12, with their offense ranked 8th overall but struggling with power, sitting at 22nd in home runs.

On the mound, Colin Rea is projected to start for the Cubs. Despite being ranked #247 among MLB pitchers, his impressive 1.32 ERA this season suggests he has been effective, albeit potentially lucky given his 3.38 xFIP. Rea's low walk rate (1.8 BB%) could play a significant role against a Phillies offense that ranks 3rd in walks. Meanwhile, Taijuan Walker takes the hill for Philadelphia, carrying a solid 2.29 ERA but also showing signs of regression with a 4.38 xFIP.

With the Cubs favored at -135 on the moneyline and an average implied total of 4.23 runs, they look to capitalize on their home-field advantage and explosive offense. The projections suggest a favorable matchup for the Cubs, especially given Walker's struggles with control. Expect an exciting clash at Wrigley Field as both teams aim to establish early dominance in the series.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Taijuan Walker has averaged 96.2 adjusted pitches per start this year, placing in the 84th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

In the last week's worth of games, Nick Castellanos's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.7% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Kyle Schwarber pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.8% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 5th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Colin Rea's higher utilization rate of his fastball this season (61.3 vs. 50.8% last season) is not ideal considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Carson Kelly has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 99.7-mph average to last year's 91.4-mph average.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected offense for the Chicago Cubs today owns an estimated true talent wOBA of .332, which is a good deal lower than their actual wOBA of .348 this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 games (+10.00 Units / 37% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 away games (+5.05 Units / 64% ROI)
• Bryson Stott has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.55 Units / 56% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.31, Chicago Cubs 4.63

• Date: April 25, 2025
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Taijuan Walker - Phillies
  • Colin Rea - Cubs

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