Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction, Odds & Picks – 6/14/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles Details

• Date: June 14, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ranger Suarez - Phillies
  • Kyle Bradish - Orioles

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

The Baltimore Orioles and Philadelphia Phillies are set to clash on June 14, 2024, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in what promises to be an exciting Interleague matchup. Both teams are having stellar seasons, with the Orioles holding a 45-23 record and the Phillies at 46-22. This game, the first in their series, features two of the league's top pitchers: Kyle Bradish for the Orioles and Ranger Suarez for the Phillies.

Bradish, a right-hander, has been exceptional this season with a 2.62 ERA and a 1.77 FIP, indicating he has been slightly unlucky and could perform even better going forward. He boasts a 2-0 Win/Loss record over seven starts and is currently ranked as the 15th best starting pitcher in MLB. On the other side, Suarez, a lefty, has a sparkling 1.81 ERA and a 10-1 Win/Loss record over 13 starts. However, his 2.68 xFIP suggests he might regress slightly as the season progresses. Suarez ranks as the 21st best starting pitcher in MLB.

Offensively, both teams bring firepower to the table. The Orioles' offense is ranked 3rd best in MLB, leading the league in home runs and boasting the 8th best team batting average. The Phillies are not far behind, ranked 4th best overall, 6th in both team batting average and home runs, and 4th in stolen bases. This sets the stage for a high-octane battle at the plate.

Gunnar Henderson has been the Orioles' standout hitter over the last week, posting a .346 batting average and a 1.085 OPS with 2 home runs and 5 RBIs in six games. For the Phillies, Kyle Schwarber has been on fire, hitting .450 with a 1.342 OPS, 2 home runs, and 6 RBIs in five games.

The projections from THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, favor the Orioles with a 59% win probability, while betting markets give them a 55% implied win probability. This suggests there might be some value in backing Baltimore. The Orioles are projected to score 4.22 runs, while the Phillies are expected to score 3.74 runs.

Both Bradish and Suarez are high-groundball pitchers, which could neutralize the potent home run capabilities of these offenses. Bradish's tendency to issue walks might be exploited by the patient Phillies lineup, while Suarez's low walk rate could play into the Orioles' aggressive approach at the plate.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Given the 1.71 gap between Ranger Suarez's 1.81 ERA and his 3.52 estimated true talent ERA (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in Major League Baseball this year and figures to perform worse in future games.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Johan Rojas's speed has gotten better this season. His 29.35 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 29.83 ft/sec now.

• Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Garrett Stubbs (the Phillies's expected catcher today) is considered to be a horrible pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Kyle Bradish's 2387.3-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season ranks in the 81st percentile out of all starting pitchers.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Extreme groundball batters like Ramon Urias usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Ranger Suarez.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Baltimore Orioles batters collectively rank among the best in Major League Baseball since the start of last season (5th-) as far as their 89.4-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 34 of their last 54 games (+20.30 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 57 games (+16.55 Units / 17% ROI)
• Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+9.90 Units / 48% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 3.74 vs Baltimore Orioles 4.22

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