Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Prediction, Odds & Picks – 8/21/2024

• Date: August 21, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Aaron Nola - Phillies
  • Max Fried - Braves

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to host the Philadelphia Phillies on August 21, 2024, both teams find themselves in the thick of a competitive National League East race. The Braves sit at 67-58, enjoying an above-average season, while the Phillies boast a strong 73-52 record and are having a great year. This matchup is significant as it represents the second game in a series that could influence playoff positioning.

In their last outing, the Braves played a tight game against the Phillies, beating Philadelphia 3-1, intensifying the stakes for this rematch. Max Fried is projected to take the mound for Atlanta, and he currently ranks as the 9th best starting pitcher in MLB, showcasing his elite status. Despite a 7-7 record and a solid 3.62 ERA this season, Fried’s projections suggest he will pitch around 6.0 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs and striking out about 6.0 batters. However, he also faces a challenge, as he has been allowing an average of 5.7 hits per game, which could be problematic against a powerful Phillies lineup.

Aaron Nola counters for Philadelphia, coming in with an 11-6 record and a stellar 3.45 ERA. Nola, ranked 43rd among starting pitchers, is projected to go 5.7 innings while allowing 2.8 earned runs. His ability to limit walks (6.2 BB% this year) could play to his advantage against a Braves offense that ranks 5th least in walks drawn.

While the Braves' offense ranks 13th overall, they excel in home runs, sitting 10th in MLB. Conversely, the Phillies boast the 6th best offense, highlighted by a 3rd rank in batting average, making this a fascinating clash of strengths and weaknesses. With the game total set at 8.0 runs and both teams' bullpens rated average to good, bettors should expect a tightly contested game.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Aaron Nola has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording 5.1 more adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

J.T. Realmuto has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (81% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

In today's game, Bryce Harper is at a disadvantage facing the league's 3rd-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 36.1% rate (89th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Max Fried has a large reverse platoon split and should be helped facing 7 opposite-handed batters in today's game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Marcell Ozuna has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 98.5-mph average to last season's 96.5-mph EV.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Atlanta Braves have been the unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in future games

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 71 of their last 117 games (+24.60 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 20 away games (+10.65 Units / 45% ROI)
• Matt Olson has hit the Total Bases Under in 32 of his last 50 games (+11.10 Units / 16% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.16 vs Atlanta Braves 4.57

Get daily MLB picks here.