Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Prediction – 6/27/2025

On June 27, 2025, the Atlanta Braves will host the Philadelphia Phillies at Truist Park in what marks the first game of a crucial series between these National League East rivals. The Braves, with a disappointing record of 37-43, are struggling this season and currently sit in the lower tier of the standings. In contrast, the Phillies boast a solid 47-34 record, positioning them as a competitive force in the division.

Both teams come into this matchup with their respective pitchers, Bryce Elder and Mick Abel, facing challenges. Elder has had an inconsistent season, holding a 2-4 record with a 4.77 ERA over 12 starts. While his 3.66 xFIP suggests he may be due for better outcomes, his projections today indicate he could allow 3.0 earned runs and 6.0 hits, which is troubling.

Mick Abel, on the other hand, has shown flashes of promise with a 2-1 record and a commendable 3.47 ERA in his five starts. However, projections indicate he might struggle as well, with expectations of allowing 3.4 earned runs and 5.3 hits. His low walk rate of 4.2 BB% could play to his advantage against a Braves offense that ranks 6th in MLB for walks drawn, but this could also neutralize one of their strengths.

The Braves' offense ranks 17th overall, which is just average, while the Phillies sit much higher at 8th, showcasing their offensive capabilities. With a high Game Total of 9.0 runs, the Braves, favored with a moneyline of -140, will look to capitalize on their home advantage. Given the current projections and the Braves' need to turn their season around, this matchup holds significant implications for both teams.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Max Kepler has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 91.3-mph average to last season's 88.8-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Philadelphia Phillies have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle Schwarber, Otto Kemp, Brandon Marsh).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Philadelphia's 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams today creates a favorable matchup for Ozzie Albies, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Atlanta's 89.8-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in Major League Baseball: #6 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 70 games (+9.60 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 41 of their last 77 games (+11.60 Units / 9% ROI)
• Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 25 games (+6.40 Units / 26% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 5.11, Atlanta Braves 5.95

• Date: June 27, 2025
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mick Abel - Phillies
  • Bryce Elder - Braves

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.