Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction 8/11/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Details

• Date: August 11, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cristopher Sanchez - Phillies
  • Merrill Kelly - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to host the Philadelphia Phillies on August 11, 2024, both teams are looking to solidify their positions in the playoff race. The Diamondbacks currently sit at 65-53, while the Phillies boast a strong 69-48 record. This matchup marks the fourth game of the series, and both teams are coming off solid performances, with the Diamondbacks winning yesterday's contest.

Merrill Kelly is projected to take the mound for the Diamondbacks, presenting an intriguing matchup against Cristopher Sanchez of the Phillies. Kelly has enjoyed a promising season, holding a Win/Loss record of 2-0 and an impressive ERA of 2.19 across four starts. However, his 3.67 xFIP suggests some potential regression may be on the horizon, especially as he faces a patient Phillies lineup that ranks 4th in walks this season.

On the other hand, Sanchez has been a consistent presence for Philadelphia, with a record of 8-7 and a solid 3.27 ERA. His FIP of 2.76 indicates he has been somewhat unlucky, and he could be poised for a strong outing against a Diamondbacks offense that ranks 5th in MLB.

While the Diamondbacks have a respectable batting average and offensive ranking, they may struggle against Sanchez's left-handed pitching. The projections indicate a competitive game, with the Diamondbacks expected to score around 4.47 runs, while the Phillies are projected for 5.01 runs. With the Diamondbacks' strong bullpen ranked 2nd in MLB, they will need to rely on their depth to keep the game within reach. This series is critical as both teams aim to bolster their playoff positions, and the outcome of this game could have significant implications moving forward.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Cristopher Sanchez’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 starts (2076 rpm) has been quite a bit lower than than his seasonal rate (2127 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Kyle Schwarber has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96.9-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 93.9-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Kyle Schwarber pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.8% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 3rd-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Merrill Kelly to have a pitch count in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 77 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Extreme groundball hitters like Eugenio Suarez usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Cristopher Sanchez.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Jose Herrera, the D-Backs's expected catcher in today's matchup, projects as a horrible pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 33 games (+15.85 Units / 40% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 59 of their last 99 games (+11.45 Units / 9% ROI)
• Jake McCarthy has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+18.00 Units / 450% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 5 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.18

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