Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction 8/10/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Details

• Date: August 10, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Aaron Nola - Phillies
  • Zac Gallen - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

As the Arizona Diamondbacks host the Philadelphia Phillies on August 10, 2024, this matchup carries significant weight in the National League playoff picture. The Diamondbacks, currently at 63-53, are having an above-average season, while the Phillies, boasting a record of 69-46, are enjoying a great year. This series marks the third game between the two teams, and after the Diamondbacks' recent victory on Friday, they will look to build on their momentum.

Zac Gallen is projected to take the mound for the Diamondbacks, and he's proven to be a solid starter this year with a 9-5 record and a respectable ERA of 3.75. He ranks as the 32nd best starting pitcher in MLB, making him a reliable option against a potent Phillies lineup. Gallen's high groundball rate of 47% could give him an edge, especially against a powerful Phillies offense that has hit 124 home runs this season, the 6th most in MLB.

On the other hand, Aaron Nola is set to pitch for the Phillies. Though he has a slightly better ERA of 3.54 and an 11-5 record, he has faced challenges this season, ranking as the 31st best starting pitcher. Nola's ability to limit hard contact will be crucial against the Diamondbacks, who rank 7th in MLB in team batting average.

THE BAT X projects the Diamondbacks to score 4.60 runs, while the Phillies are projected to edge them out with an average of 4.87 runs. With both teams' moneylines set at -110, a close contest is expected, reinforcing the idea that this game is pivotal for both clubs as they push for playoff positioning.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Compared to the average starter, Aaron Nola has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an extra 4.7 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

J.T. Realmuto has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (89% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Kyle Schwarber pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.7% — 98th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 3rd-deepest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Zac Gallen has used his curveball 5.1% more often this year (27.8%) than he did last season (22.7%).

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Jose Herrera's average exit velocity has decreased lately; his 80.2-mph seasonal average has lowered to 73.4-mph in the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Jose Herrera, the D-Backs's expected catcher in today's game, projects as a horrible pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 34 games (+14.85 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 61 of their last 102 games (+11.90 Units / 9% ROI)
• Ketel Marte has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 22 games (+42.00 Units / 191% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.86 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.6

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