The Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks are set to face off on Friday night at Chase Field in Phoenix. The Phillies have already locked up the NL East title and are playing for potential home-field advantage. They will look to take down a Diamondbacks team that is still in the mix for an NL Wild Card spot. Continue reading below to get my thoughts on this game, including my Phillies vs Diamondbacks prediction.
Our Phillies vs Diamondbacks Pick
- Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks
- Date & Time: Friday, September 19, 2025, 9:40 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Taijuan Walker (PHI) vs Ryne Nelson (ARI)
- Stadium: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
- Broadcast: MLB Network
Key Storylines
Pitching Matchup
Ryne Nelson has been a standout for the Diamondbacks. He has a 7-3 record with a 3.34 ERA and 122 strikeouts over 143 innings. He has delivered quality starts in each of his last five outings, including six scoreless innings in his most recent start. Taijuan Walker of the Phillies will get the start for his team tonight. He holds a 5-8 record with a 4.17 ERA and 79 strikeouts over 116.2 innings. Walker is one of the weaker links of the Phillies’ rotation. That speaks to the overall strength of Philadelphia’s pitching staff more than it says anything bad about Walker.
Recent Team Streaks
- Philadelphia Phillies: The Phillies are 3-2 over their last five games. They won their most recent series over the Los Angeles Dodgers by taking two out of three games.
- Arizona Diamondbacks: The Diamondbacks snapped a four-game winning streak with a 5-1 extra-inning loss to the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday. They are two games back of the final Wild Card spot in the National League.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| Corbin Carroll | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| Ryne Nelson | Over 5.5 Strikeouts |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Philadelphia Phillies: Philadelphia is 40-38 on the road for the season. They are 19-10 against opponents from the NL West.
- Arizona Diamondbacks: The Diamondbacks are 40-35 at home on the year. They have gone 13-14 against NL East competition in the 2025 season.
- Head-to-Head: The Phillies are 2-1 against the Diamondbacks so far this season.
Phillies vs Diamondbacks Model Projection
- Score Projection: Phillies 4 – Diamondbacks 5
- Win Probability: Phillies 45%, Diamondbacks 55%
Final Thoughts
While the Phillies have a potent offense and a solid record, the Diamondbacks’ recent form and Ryne Nelson’s strong pitching give them a slight edge in this matchup. With the game being held at Chase Field, where the Diamondbacks have a 40-35 home record, they are well-positioned to secure a victory. Bettors should consider backing the Diamondbacks to win on the moneyline. Arizona should do just enough to get the victory in this game and help their chances of catching up in the NL Wild Card chase.
