Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals Pick & Prediction – 4/10/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals Overview

• Date: April 10, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Aaron Nola - Phillies
  • Lance Lynn - Cardinals
• Run Line: Phillies -1.5 125, Cardinals 1.5 -145
• Money Line: Phillies -140, Cardinals 115
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -110

Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Philadelphia Phillies - 56%
• St. Louis Cardinals - 44%

Projected Win %:

• Philadelphia Phillies - 51.11%
• St. Louis Cardinals - 48.89%

Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals Game Preview & Prediction

On April 10, 2024, the St. Louis Cardinals will be hosting the Philadelphia Phillies at Busch Stadium for an exciting National League matchup. Both teams are looking to improve their records and secure a victory in this game.

The Cardinals, with a current season record of 6-6, are having an average season so far. As the home team, they have the advantage of playing in front of their fans. Lance Lynn, a right-handed pitcher and the Cardinals' projected starter, will take the mound. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Lynn is considered above average among starting pitchers in MLB.

The Phillies, on the other hand, have a record of 5-6 this season, suggesting a below-average performance thus far. Aaron Nola, a right-handed pitcher, is projected to start for the Phillies. Nola ranks as one of the top starting pitchers in the league according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings.

In their previous game on April 9, the Cardinals faced off against the Phillies and emerged victorious with a score of 3-0. Despite being underdogs with a closing Moneyline price of +120, the Cardinals defied the odds. The Phillies, who were favorites with a closing Moneyline price of -140, were unable to secure a win.

The Cardinals' offense ranks as the 24th best in MLB this season, while the Phillies' offense ranks 19th. The Cardinals excel in team batting average, ranking 7th in the league, and team home runs, ranking 5th. However, their stolen bases ranking is lower at 23rd. On the other hand, the Phillies have a strong team batting average, ranking 8th, and a good ranking in stolen bases, at 10th.

Analyzing the pitchers, Lynn projects to pitch around 5.9 innings on average, allowing approximately 2.7 earned runs. He is expected to strike out an average of 6.1 batters but may struggle with allowing 5.4 hits and 1.9 walks. Nola, projected to pitch around 6.1 innings, is expected to allow 2.5 earned runs, strike out 5.6 batters, and allow 5.5 hits and 1.4 walks.

Considering the projections, the Phillies have a slight edge in win probability according to THE BAT X, with a 51% chance of winning compared to the Cardinals' 49%. The current moneyline odds also suggest a close game, with the Cardinals at +115 and the Phillies at -135.

As the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X provides valuable insights into the game, but it's important to consider other factors as well. Both teams have their strengths and weaknesses, and this matchup promises to be a closely contested battle.

The game total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating an average expectation for scoring. The Cardinals have an average implied team total of 4.00 runs, while the Phillies have a slightly higher implied team total of 4.50 runs.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense projects as the 5th-strongest among every team on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Nick Castellanos has been cold recently, notching a 0% Barrel% (an advanced standard to measure power) over the past two weeks.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The 5th-best projected lineup of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive skill belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Compared to the average starting pitcher, Lance Lynn has been granted more leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, tallying an additional 9.0 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals' bullpen grades out as the 2nd-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies 4.25 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.9

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