Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Mariners Prediction For 8/2/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs Seattle Mariners Details

• Date: August 2, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tyler Phillips - Phillies
  • Bryan Woo - Mariners

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

On August 2, 2024, the Seattle Mariners will host the Philadelphia Phillies at T-Mobile Park in what promises to be an intriguing interleague matchup. Both teams are experiencing contrasting seasons; the Mariners sit at 57-53, while the Phillies boast an impressive 65-43 record, ranking 1st in the National League East. The Mariners are above average this year, but the Phillies are on a roll, having a strong chance to extend their success.

The Mariners will send Bryan Woo to the mound, who has had a solid season with a 4-1 record and an excellent ERA of 2.35. However, his projections indicate potential struggles today, as he is expected to pitch an average of only 4.8 innings while allowing around 2.2 earned runs. The young right-hander has had a good strikeout rate but will need to manage his hits and walks better, given that he projects to allow 4.4 hits and 1.2 walks, which is concerning.

Conversely, Tyler Phillips will start for the Phillies. With a perfect 3-0 record and an ERA of 1.80, Phillips has been a pleasant surprise this season, though projections suggest he may also be due for some regression. He projects to pitch 5.2 innings and allow 2.8 earned runs, which is below average, but he too has been plagued by high hit and walk projections.

Offensively, the Mariners rank 27th in the league, struggling significantly at the plate, while the Phillies are 7th overall, showcasing their ability to hit for average and power. Kyle Schwarber has been hot lately, making him a key player to watch for Philadelphia. Meanwhile, Jorge Polanco has stepped up for Seattle, making an impact over the last week.

While the betting markets see this as a close contest, the Mariners have a slight edge with a moneyline of -120. However, with their struggles on offense against a solid Phillies lineup, this matchup heavily favors the visitors, who are expected to capitalize on the Mariners' pitching weaknesses.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Tyler Phillips in the 13th percentile when assessing his strikeout skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Alec Bohm has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.8-mph to 94.9-mph in the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Philadelphia Phillies projected offense profiles as the 2nd-best of all teams today in terms of overall offensive ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

The Seattle Mariners outfield defense grades out as the weakest out of every team on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Jorge Polanco has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .285 rate is deflated compared to his .324 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Seattle Mariners bats as a group have been among the best in the league this year (4th-) as it relates to their 89.4-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 54 games at home (+17.20 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 63 of their last 104 games (+14.60 Units / 11% ROI)
• Trea Turner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 30 of his last 50 games (+8.55 Units / 14% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.4 vs Seattle Mariners 4.53

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