Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Mariners Pick & Prediction – 8/4/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs Seattle Mariners Details

• Date: August 4, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zack Wheeler - Phillies
  • Logan Gilbert - Mariners

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

The upcoming matchup on August 4, 2024, between the Seattle Mariners and the Philadelphia Phillies at T-Mobile Park is set to be an intriguing contest, especially with the Mariners winning the first two games of this series at home. Meanwhile, the Phillies are enjoying a strong season, sitting at 65-44, compared to the Mariners' 58-53 record. This Interleague series marks the third game between these two teams, and with the stakes high, both sides will be looking to secure a vital win.

Seattle's Logan Gilbert is projected to take the mound, bringing a solid ERA of 3.11 and a respectable strikeout rate of 6.3 K/9 innings this season. Despite his good control, Gilbert faces a challenge against a high-walk Phillies offense that ranks 4th in MLB. The matchup favors Gilbert somewhat, as he is adept at limiting walks, which could neutralize Philadelphia's patient approach at the plate.

On the other hand, Zack Wheeler, who has been nothing short of elite with a 2.94 ERA and a Power Rankings position of 10th among starting pitchers, will be looking to dominate Seattle's struggling offense. The Mariners rank 26th in the league offensively and sit at a dismal 30th in team batting average. Wheeler's ability to generate strikeouts aligns perfectly with the Mariners, who lead MLB in strikeouts.

The betting markets have set the Mariners' moneyline at +115, indicating a close game. However, with Seattle's recent struggles and Philadelphia's offensive prowess—ranked 7th best overall—expectations lean toward the Phillies finding a way to capitalize on their advantages, particularly if Wheeler can deliver a strong outing. With the Game Total set at a low 7.0 runs, it suggests a potential for a tightly contested battle.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest out of all the teams today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Bryce Harper is apt to have an advantage against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Alec Bohm has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Recording 19.3 outs per outing this year on average, Logan Gilbert falls in the 99th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Cal Raleigh is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Philadelphia (#3-worst of all teams on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Cal Raleigh (the Mariners's expected catcher today) is considered to be an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games at home (+8.75 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 62 of their last 104 games (+16.10 Units / 9% ROI)
• Cal Raleigh has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 21 games at home (+8.55 Units / 36% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.23 vs Seattle Mariners 3.58

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