Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Mariners Pick & Prediction – 8/3/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs Seattle Mariners Details

• Date: August 3, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kolby Allard - Phillies
  • Bryce Miller - Mariners

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

As the Seattle Mariners prepare to face the Philadelphia Phillies on August 3, 2024, they'll be looking to build on a resounding 10-2 victory over the Phillies in their last game. This matchup is crucial for both teams, with the Mariners sitting at 58-53, enjoying an above-average season, while the Phillies boast a strong 65-44 record, marking them as one of the top teams in the league.

Seattle is projected to start Bryce Miller, who has had an average season with a Win/Loss record of 8-7 and a solid ERA of 3.46. However, the advanced stats suggest he may have been a bit lucky this year, as his 3.98 xFIP indicates potential for regression. Miller's high flyball rate (40% this season) could be a concern against a powerful Phillies offense that ranks 6th in MLB with 124 home runs.

Kolby Allard is set to take the mound for Philadelphia, having struggled in his limited action this season. With a poor ERA of 6.75 and only one start under his belt, Allard's projections indicate he may allow about 2.9 earned runs and 4.8 hits over 4.5 innings. The Mariners could capitalize on his struggles, especially given their recent offensive output.

Despite Seattle's offensive ranking as the 26th best in MLB, the projections suggest that they could score around 4.94 runs in this game, reflecting a potential for an offensive explosion against Allard. Meanwhile, the Phillies' offense, while potent, may face challenges against Miller's control, as he is a low-walk pitcher facing a high-walk lineup.

With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs and the Mariners holding a moneyline of -130, betting markets view this as a closely contested game. The leading MLB projection system indicates that the Mariners may be slight favorites, adding an intriguing layer to this interleague clash at T-Mobile Park.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Compared to the average starting pitcher, Kolby Allard has been granted less leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an -11.1 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

J.T. Realmuto has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (95% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Alec Bohm has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Bryce Miller's four-seam fastball usage has decreased by 14.3% from last season to this one (58.5% to 44.2%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Cal Raleigh has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 92.2-mph average to last year's 89.6-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Cal Raleigh (the Mariners's expected catcher in today's matchup) profiles as an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 41 games at home (+11.55 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 57 of their last 96 games (+13.90 Units / 8% ROI)
• Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 42 games (+11.20 Units / 17% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.53 vs Seattle Mariners 4.94

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.