Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets Prediction For 9/22/2024

• Date: September 22, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zack Wheeler - Phillies
  • Tylor Megill - Mets

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Betting Preview

As the MLB season approaches its climax, the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies face off on September 22, 2024, at Citi Field in a pivotal National League East matchup. While both teams have secured strong seasons, the Phillies, with a 92-63 record, have edged ahead in the division standings over the 86-69 Mets. This game also marks the fourth installment of their series, adding another layer of intrigue to a fierce rivalry.

The pitching duel is set to be compelling, with the Mets sending Tylor Megill to the mound against the Phillies' Zack Wheeler. Megill's season has seen solid performances, sporting a 4.08 ERA and a 3.46 FIP, indicating potential for future improvement. In contrast, Wheeler is having an elite season, highlighted by a sparkling 2.56 ERA, though his xFIP of 3.38 suggests some overperformance.

On the offensive side, the Mets boast the 7th-best lineup and have shown a penchant for power, ranking 6th in home runs. Their recent spark comes from Luisangel Acuna, who has been scorching with a .364 average and 1.346 OPS over the past week. Meanwhile, the Phillies lineup is regarded as the 4th-best, with offensive consistency reflected in their 4th rank in batting average. Nick Castellanos has been a standout performer lately, hitting .296 with a .877 OPS and adding a couple of home runs over the same period.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Phillies are favored with an implied win probability that is 4% lower than the projected 62%, suggesting potential betting value on Philadelphia. The Phillies' success this season has been backed by a robust bullpen ranked 8th, providing a noticeable edge over the Mets' bullpen, which ranks 23rd. With high stakes and two competitive teams, this game promises to be a thrilling contest.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Out of all SPs, Zack Wheeler's fastball spin rate of 2431 rpm is in the 82nd percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

J.T. Realmuto is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 63% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The 4th-best projected offense on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tylor Megill to throw 85 pitches today (12th-least of all pitchers on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Brandon Nimmo has seen a big increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 95.6-mph average in the past week's worth of games to his seasonal 91.7-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The New York Mets bullpen ranks as the 8th-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 90 games (+17.00 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 51 of their last 83 games (+16.35 Units / 16% ROI)
• Brandon Marsh has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 23 games (+11.60 Units / 37% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.64 vs New York Mets 3.3

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