Phillies vs Mets Game 4 Pick & Prediction – 10/9/2024

• Date: October 9, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ranger Suarez - Phillies
  • Jose Quintana - Mets

Phillies vs Mets Game 4 Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Game 4 Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Game 4 Betting Preview

As the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies gear up for Game 4 of their National League Division Series matchup on October 9, 2024, both teams find themselves in a tight postseason battle. With the series now progressing to its fourth game, each side will be looking to capitalize on any edge they can find. The Mets, fresh off a commanding 7-2 victory over the Phillies yesterday, will aim to keep their momentum going at Citi Field as they look to close out this series in front of their home crowd.

Jose Quintana will take the mound for the Mets, coming off a strong outing on October 3, where he pitched six scoreless innings. Despite a season where his 4.44 xFIP suggests some overperformance, his recent form has been encouraging. However, Quintana will face a daunting challenge against the Phillies, who rank 4th in MLB in overall offensive capability and boast the 5th-best team batting average—indicative of their ability to consistently make contact and create scoring opportunities.

On the other side, Ranger Suarez will start for the Phillies. Despite a subpar last outing on September 27, he's had a solid season with a 3.46 ERA, demonstrating his ability to limit runs. Suarez’s high groundball rate could be pivotal against the Mets, whose power-heavy offense ranks 5th in home runs. If Suarez manages to keep the ball on the ground, he could neutralize the Mets' ability to clear the fences.

Both teams have offenses capable of lighting up the scoreboard, but the Mets and Phillies are also closely matched in bullpen capabilities as per advanced-stat Power Rankings. The bookmakers also see this as an evenly-contested game, with both teams having an implied win probability of 50%. With both clubs aiming for a breakthrough performance, it’s set to be a thrilling encounter at Citi Field.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Given that flyball batters face a disadvantage against flyball pitchers, Ranger Suarez (51% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this matchup with 2 FB hitters in the opposing club's projected lineup.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trea Turner as the 15th-best batter in Major League Baseball when estimating his batting average talent.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

The worst projected batting order on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Because of his reverse platoon split, Jose Quintana will be at an advantage going up against 7 hitters in the projected lineup of opposing handedness in this game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

J.D. Martinez has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (83% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 29 of their last 46 games at home (+17.90 Units / 33% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 65 of their last 112 games (+12.10 Units / 9% ROI)
• Alec Bohm has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 62% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Game 4 Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.46 vs New York Mets 4.05

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.