Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets Pick For 9/19/2024

• Date: September 19, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Taijuan Walker - Phillies
  • Luis Severino - Mets

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Betting Preview

As September 19, 2024, dawns on Citi Field, the New York Mets look to gain ground in the National League East as they face off against the division-leading Philadelphia Phillies. The Mets, with an 84-68 record, are having a solid season, but they trail the Phillies, who boast a 91-61 record. This matchup is crucial for both teams as the season winds down, each striving for playoff positioning.

The Mets will send Luis Severino to the mound. Severino has been effective with a 10-6 Win/Loss record and a solid 3.77 ERA. However, his peripheral stats suggest he has benefitted from some luck this season. Despite this, the Mets are slight betting favorites, with an implied win probability of 56%, though THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sees it as more evenly matched, giving them a 51% chance.

On the other side, Taijuan Walker takes the mound for the Phillies. Walker has struggled this season with a 6.29 ERA, but his underlying numbers indicate he's been somewhat unlucky, suggesting potential improvement. His fortunes might turn against a Mets lineup that’s ranked 5th in home runs and has been swinging the bats well lately, especially with Luisangel Acuna hitting .467 over the past week.

The Phillies' offense, ranked 4th in the league, should not be underestimated either. Bryce Harper has been hot, blasting three homers in the last week. The Phillies’ bullpen, ranking 7th, could be a deciding factor late in the game, contrasting with the Mets’ 20th-ranked bullpen. With both teams boasting potent offenses, this series opener promises to be a closely contested affair, with the Phillies potentially offering value to bettors as they aim to continue their strong season.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Taijuan Walker's fastball velocity has decreased 1.5 mph this year (90.4 mph) below where it was last year (91.9 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (22.7) suggests that Bryce Harper has had some very good luck this year with his 29.5 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen grades out as the 7th-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Compared to the average hurler, Luis Severino has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an extra 3.8 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Jose Iglesias has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (81% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the batting order today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Mark Vientos hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 59 of their last 92 games (+19.20 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 51 of their last 80 games (+19.35 Units / 20% ROI)
• Bryson Stott has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 14 away games (+9.65 Units / 56% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.87 vs New York Mets 4.65

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