Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers Pick & Prediction – 9/18/2024

• Date: September 18, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Aaron Nola - Phillies
  • Freddy Peralta - Brewers

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to host the Philadelphia Phillies on September 18, 2024, both teams find themselves in a significant matchup as they vie for playoff positioning. The Brewers, sitting at 87-64, have been impressive this season, but they need to keep pace with the 91-60 Phillies, who are also enjoying a strong campaign.

In yesterday's game, the Brewers fell to the Phillies, marking an important win for Philadelphia in the ongoing series. Freddy Peralta, projected to start for Milwaukee, has had a solid year, boasting an 11-8 record and a respectable 3.75 ERA. Despite being ranked as the 29th best starting pitcher in MLB, his 4.27 FIP indicates he may have been a bit fortunate this year, suggesting potential struggles ahead. On the mound for Philadelphia, Aaron Nola (12-8, 3.62 ERA) ranks 39th among starters, but his strong control could be a key factor in this matchup.

Peralta is projected to pitch around 5.3 innings and allow about 2.3 earned runs, while Nola is expected to pitch 5.5 innings with 2.4 earned runs allowed. With both pitchers averaging similar innings, the focus will be on how effectively they can navigate the opposing offense. The Brewers' lineup ranks 8th in MLB, known for their ability to draw walks, while the Phillies' offense is ranked 4th, showcasing a potent batting average and solid power numbers.

The game total is set at 8.0 runs, which reflects the closeness expected in this encounter. Betting markets have the Brewers favored at -120, indicating a slight edge as they look to turn the tide in this crucial series.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Aaron Nola’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 GS (2376 rpm) has been significantly higher than than his seasonal rate (2308 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Trea Turner has been lucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .296 rate is quite a bit higher than his .263 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies' bullpen ranks as the 7th-best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Freddy Peralta has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying 6.4 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average starting pitcher.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Garrett Mitchell is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Jackson Chourio hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Run Line in 33 of their last 60 games at home (+8.65 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 43 of their last 67 games (+16.90 Units / 21% ROI)
• Joseph Ortiz has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 36 games (+14.70 Units / 29% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.28 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.04

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