Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers Pick For 9/17/2024

• Date: September 17, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zack Wheeler - Phillies
  • Frankie Montas - Brewers

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to take on the Philadelphia Phillies on September 17, 2024, both teams find themselves in a tight race for postseason positioning. The Brewers, at 87-63, are looking to leverage their home-field advantage at American Family Field, while the Phillies lead the National League with a record of 90-60. This matchup is particularly crucial, especially since the Brewers are currently projected to start Frankie Montas, who is having an average season with a 4.49 ERA and a 7-10 record over 27 starts.

In their last outing, the Brewers beat up on the Phillies in a battle of National League elites. Meanwhile, Montas will be opposed by Zack Wheeler, the elite right-handed pitcher, who boasts a stellar 2.60 ERA and a 15-6 record across 29 starts. Wheeler's advanced metrics suggest he has been a bit lucky this year, with a 3.41 xFIP, but his ability to limit runs remains a significant asset for Philadelphia.

The Brewers' offense ranks 8th in MLB, and they've been bolstered recently by William Contreras, who has been on fire with a .389 batting average and 1.242 OPS over the last week. However, the projections indicate that the Brewers face a daunting task against Wheeler, as they are expected to struggle against one of the league's top pitchers. The Game Total is set at a low 7.5 runs, reflecting both teams’ recent performances and the potential for a tightly contested affair. With the Brewers listed as underdogs at +125, this game presents an intriguing opportunity for bettors looking to capitalize on the Brewers' home-field advantage and recent offensive output.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Compared to the average starter, Zack Wheeler has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an additional 8.0 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Kyle Schwarber has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 94.1-mph to 96.5-mph over the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen projects as the 8th-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Considering the 0.32 difference between Frankie Montas's 4.49 ERA and his 4.17 estimated true talent ERA (per the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the least fortunate pitchers in the league this year and should see better results going forward.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (18.3) suggests that Jackson Chourio has experienced some positive variance this year with his 24.1 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Jackson Chourio hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 91% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 40 games (+15.10 Units / 31% ROI)
• Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 24 away games (+11.90 Units / 50% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.5 vs Milwaukee Brewers 3.43

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.