Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins Best Bet – 9/7/2024

• Date: September 7, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Aaron Nola - Phillies
  • Darren McCaughan - Marlins

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

As the Philadelphia Phillies face off against the Miami Marlins on September 7, 2024, the stakes are clear. The Phillies, currently holding a strong record of 85-56, are in pursuit of postseason positioning, while the Marlins, at 52-89, are looking to salvage a disappointing season. The matchup is particularly intriguing as it marks the third game in this series, with the Phillies having won the previous encounter convincingly.

On the mound, the Phillies will send out Aaron Nola, who has been a reliable force this season with a 12-6 record and a commendable 3.29 ERA. Nola's ability to limit walks—boasting a 6.1 BB%—will be crucial against a Marlins offense that ranks 1st in the league for fewest walks drawn. The projections suggest he’ll pitch around 5.9 innings and allow just 2.4 earned runs, which is favorable given the Marlins' struggles.

Conversely, the Marlins will counter with Darren McCaughan, who has had a rough year, reflected in his 8.24 ERA and a ranking of 325th among starting pitchers. McCaughan's high walk rate of 10.0% could be exploited by a patient Phillies lineup that ranks 4th in walks drawn. Projections indicate he may allow 3.3 earned runs while pitching only 4.8 innings, which spells trouble against a potent Phillies offense ranked 5th overall.

Given the current trends, the Phillies are positioned as significant favorites, with their offensive firepower likely to overpower the Marlins' struggling lineup. With the game total set at an average 8.5 runs, bettors should keep a close eye on the Phillies’ ability to capitalize on McCaughan's vulnerabilities.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Compared to the average hurler, Aaron Nola has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an additional 5.7 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

J.T. Realmuto is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 69% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Kyle Schwarber pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.6% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 4th-deepest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Darren McCaughan in the 11th percentile when estimating his strikeout talent.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Otto Lopez has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.8-mph dropping to 76.7-mph over the last week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Miami Marlins have 4 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Connor Norby, Jake Burger, Griffin Conine, Kyle Stowers).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 62 games at home (+23.45 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 43 games (+12.35 Units / 24% ROI)
• Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Under in 25 of his last 49 games (+8.50 Units / 13% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 5.87 vs Miami Marlins 3.9

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