Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins Best Bet – 9/5/2024

• Date: September 5, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ranger Suarez - Phillies
  • Adam Oller - Marlins

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

As the Philadelphia Phillies roll into LoanDepot Park to face off against the Miami Marlins on September 5, 2024, they bring a strong 83-56 record, sitting comfortably in the playoff picture. Conversely, the Marlins are struggling with a 52-87 record, having long been out of contention in the National League East. The Phillies are currently riding a wave of momentum, showcasing their prowess with one of the best offenses in Major League Baseball.

In their last outing, the Marlins defeated the Washington Nationals in extra innings, while the Phillies got the better of the Toronto Blue Jays. The Marlins will start Adam Oller, whose 3.31 ERA this season is deceiving given his xFIP of 5.10, indicating he may be due for regression. Oller's struggles with control are evident in his high walk rate, and he is projected to allow an alarming 3.1 earned runs over just 4.9 innings today. This is concerning against a powerful Phillies lineup that ranks 6th in the league in offensive production, including 124 home runs.

On the other side, Ranger Suarez takes the mound for Philadelphia. With a stellar 3.02 ERA and a solid win/loss record of 11-6, Suarez has proven to be a reliable starter. He’s projected to pitch a solid 6.0 innings today, allowing only 2.3 earned runs on average, which bodes well for the Phillies' chances.

Given the current trends and the matchup of a high-flyball pitcher like Oller against a potent offense, the Phillies have a significant advantage. With a moneyline of -230, they are favored to take this series opener against a Marlins team that continues to struggle both offensively and on the mound.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Ranger Suarez's fastball velocity has fallen 1.9 mph this season (90.3 mph) below where it was last season (92.2 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

J.T. Realmuto is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 70% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The best projected lineup of all teams on the slate in terms of overall batting ability belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Adam Oller is projected to record an average of 14.7 outs today, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Kyle Stowers has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 97.8-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 90.3-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins' bullpen projects as the 4th-worst among all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 50 games at home (+19.85 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 51 of their last 86 games (+12.10 Units / 12% ROI)
• Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Under in 27 of his last 40 games (+9.95 Units / 19% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 5.67 vs Miami Marlins 3.74

Stay informed with the most recent MLB news and our analytics-driven MLB picks and predictions all season long.