Philadelphia Phillies at Kansas City Royals Best Bet – 8/24/2024

• Date: August 24, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ranger Suarez - Phillies
  • Brady Singer - Royals

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

On August 24, 2024, the Kansas City Royals will host the Philadelphia Phillies at Kauffman Stadium in what promises to be an intriguing interleague matchup. Both teams are enjoying strong seasons, with the Royals sitting at 72-56 while the Phillies hold a record of 74-54. The stakes are high, as both squads are vying for playoff positioning. In their last outing, the Royals got the better of the Phillies and will look to do the same at home here.

Brady Singer is projected to take the mound for Kansas City, bringing his solid 3.18 ERA and 9-8 record into the game. Although his advanced stats suggest he may have been a little lucky this season, he has shown the ability to limit hard contact, which will be essential against a powerful Phillies offense that ranks 6th in the league with 124 home runs. Singer's groundball rate of 48% could work in his favor, helping him mitigate the long ball threat.

On the other side, Ranger Suarez will start for Philadelphia, boasting a stellar 2.87 ERA with a 10-5 record. Though the projections indicate he has also benefitted from some good fortune, his ability to throw strikes is a strong asset against the Royals, who rank 4th in the league in fewest walks drawn.

Offensively, the Royals rank 12th in the league, whereas the Phillies are 9th, indicating a slight edge for Philadelphia. However, Kansas City’s recent rise in performance, highlighted by Dairon Blanco’s impressive last week—where he hit .500 with 8 RBIs—suggests that they could put up a fight in this contest. The Game Total is set at a high 9.0 runs, reflecting the expectation of a competitive matchup. With the Royals' implied total at 4.45 runs and the Phillies at 4.55, betting markets are anticipating a closely contested game.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Ranger Suarez has experienced some positive variance in regards to his strikeouts this year, notching an 8.75 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 8.28 — a 0.47 K/9 difference.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (22.5) implies that Bryce Harper has had positive variance on his side this year with his 32.0 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Kyle Schwarber pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.6% — 97th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Over his previous 3 GS, Brady Singer has experienced a big spike in his fastball spin rate: from 2259 rpm over the entire season to 2312 rpm lately.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Hunter Renfroe has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 5.7% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the last 14 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

It may be sensible to expect worse results for the Kansas City Royals offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 9th-luckiest offense in baseball this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in 38 of their last 62 games at home (+11.35 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 39 games (+10.65 Units / 23% ROI)
• Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+10.80 Units / 29% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 5.61 vs Kansas City Royals 4.9

Check out all our free picks on every MLB game daily in our MLB betting section.