Philadelphia Phillies at Kansas City Royals Best Bet – 8/23/2024

• Date: August 23, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Taijuan Walker - Phillies
  • Michael Wacha - Royals

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to host the Philadelphia Phillies on August 23, 2024, both teams come into the matchup with solid records, but the stakes heighten as they look to build momentum. The Royals currently stand at 71-56, while the Phillies boast a record of 74-53. This game marks the first of a series between these two teams, setting the stage for an exciting interleague clash.

Kansas City’s starting pitcher, Michael Wacha, is having a strong season with a Win/Loss record of 10-6 and an impressive ERA of 3.33. His ranking as the 73rd best starting pitcher in MLB suggests he is above average, though his 4.13 xFIP indicates he might have enjoyed some good fortune this season. Wacha's ability to limit earned runs—projecting to allow an average of 2.8 runs today—will be essential against a potent Phillies lineup.

On the other hand, the Phillies will send out Taijuan Walker, who has struggled this year with a 5.69 ERA and a 3-4 record. His position among the worst pitchers in MLB, combined with his high walk rate of 10.0%, could play into the hands of a Royals offense that ranks 12th overall but is particularly adept at limiting strikeouts, ranking 2nd in the league for fewest strikeouts.

In their most recent games, the Royals got a win over the Los Angeles Angels, while the Phillies are coming off of a division loss to the Atlanta Braves. With both teams eager to capitalize on their current form, the Royals hold a slight edge as betting favorites with a moneyline of -140. As the projections favor the Royals in this matchup, they could very well capitalize on Walker’s struggles to secure a victory at Kauffman Stadium.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Taijuan Walker's 90.4-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a big 1.5-mph decline from last year's 91.9-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Brandon Marsh has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.5-mph to 103.7-mph in the past week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Kyle Schwarber pulls many of his flyballs (39.6% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's deepest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Generating 17.3 outs per start this year on average, Michael Wacha falls in the 80th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Freddy Fermin has had some very good luck with his batting average this year; his .301 figure is significantly inflated relative to his .245 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 5th-least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the Kansas City Royals with a 20.2% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 36 of their last 61 games at home (+11.35 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 35 games (+13.10 Units / 32% ROI)
• Trea Turner has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 29 games (+11.15 Units / 22% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 5.34 vs Kansas City Royals 5.42

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.