Philadelphia Phillies at Detroit Tigers Best Bet – 6/26/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers Details

• Date: June 26, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Spencer Turnbull - Phillies
  • Tyler Holton - Tigers

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

The Detroit Tigers and Philadelphia Phillies face off in an intriguing Interleague matchup at Comerica Park on June 26, 2024. The Tigers, sitting at 37-42 and having a below-average season, will host the Phillies, who boast an impressive 52-27 record. Despite the disparity in their records, the Tigers managed to win their last game against the Phillies, 4-1, bringing some momentum into this contest.

Keider Montero, who has struggled this season with an 8.31 ERA in his lone start, will be expected to do the bulk of the pitching in this game for Detroit after Tyler Holton opens. His 3.50 xFIP suggests he has been unlucky, and he will look to improve against a powerful Phillies lineup. Montero's high-flyball tendencies (38% FB rate) could be problematic against a Phillies team that ranks 4th in MLB with 95 home runs. However, his low walk rate (5.3%) might mitigate one of Philadelphia's strengths, as they are known for drawing walks.

Spencer Turnbull, an average pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, starts for the Phillies. Turnbull has been effective with a 2.79 ERA this season, but his 3.36 xFIP indicates he may regress. Despite his high-groundball rate (48%), which should play well against the Tigers' lackluster power (25th in MLB with 72 home runs), Turnbull's projected 3.8 innings pitched isn't ideal.

Offensively, the Tigers rank 27th in MLB, struggling across various metrics, including team batting average (23rd), home runs (25th), and stolen bases (27th). Riley Greene is Detroit’s standout performer, hitting .260 with 15 home runs and a .850 OPS this season. On the Phillies' side, Bryce Harper has been stellar, batting .306 with 20 home runs and a .992 OPS. Harper’s recent hot streak, hitting .538 with five home runs in the last week, could be a game-changer.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Tigers a 46% win probability. Detroit’s bullpen, ranked 11th, could be a key factor in keeping the game close, especially considering the Phillies' 4th-ranked bullpen. Betting markets currently have the Tigers as +150 underdogs with an implied win probability of 39%, suggesting potential value in backing Detroit in this matchup. With the Tigers projected to score 4.70 runs and the Phillies 5.42 runs, expect a competitive game that might surprise bettors.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Bryce Harper will hold the platoon advantage against Keider Montero in today's matchup.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen ranks as the 4th-best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Out of every team playing today, the 5th-weakest outfield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Zach McKinstry hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's 2nd-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 62 games (+9.40 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 44 of their last 67 games (+19.70 Units / 17% ROI)
• Colt Keith has hit the Hits Under in 24 of his last 45 games (+9.85 Units / 19% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 5.42 vs Detroit Tigers 4.7

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