Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies Best Bet – 5/26/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs Colorado Rockies Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 26, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ranger Suarez - Phillies
  • Cal Quantrill - Rockies

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated National League matchup, the Colorado Rockies will take on the Philadelphia Phillies on May 26, 2024, at Coors Field. As the home team, the Rockies will aim to turn their season around, but they face a tough challenge against the Phillies, who are having a great season.

The Rockies have struggled this year with a record of 17-33, making it a terrible season for them. Their offense ranks as the 18th best in MLB, which is considered average. However, their ranking in team home runs and stolen bases is on the lower end, indicating room for improvement.

On the other hand, the Phillies boast an impressive record of 37-15, establishing themselves as one of the top teams this season. Their offense ranks as the 4th best in MLB, displaying their strong batting prowess. With a well-balanced lineup and a solid pitching staff, the Phillies have been a force to be reckoned with.

The Rockies are projected to start right-handed pitcher Cal Quantrill, who has had an average season so far. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Quantrill is ranked as the #162 best starting pitcher in MLB, suggesting room for improvement. He has a 3-3 win/loss record and an ERA of 3.59, which is good. However, his peripheral indicator, xFIP, suggests that he may not perform as well going forward.

In contrast, the Phillies are projected to start left-handed pitcher Ranger Suarez, who has been exceptional this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Suarez is ranked as the #24 best starting pitcher in MLB, highlighting his effectiveness on the mound. With a perfect 9-0 win/loss record and an impressive ERA of 1.36, Suarez has been a key contributor to the Phillies' success.

Both teams have contrasting strengths and weaknesses. The Rockies have a high-strikeout offense, which plays into Suarez's strengths as a high-strikeout pitcher. However, the Rockies also have a low-walk offense, which may not allow them to take advantage of Suarez's low-walk pitching style.

Considering the current odds, the Phillies are the clear favorites with an implied win probability of 66%. The Rockies, on the other hand, are the underdogs with a 34% win probability. The Phillies have a high implied team total of 5.60 runs, indicating their offensive prowess.

It will be an intriguing matchup between the struggling Rockies and the dominant Phillies. Can Quantrill rise to the challenge and lead his team to an upset victory, or will Suarez continue his impressive form and secure another win for the Phillies? Baseball fans and sports bettors alike will be eagerly waiting to find out.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Given that flyball pitchers have a notable advantage over flyball hitters, Ranger Suarez and his 51% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a favorable position in this outing going up against 2 opposing FB hitters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Edmundo Sosa's true offensive skill to be a .304, suggesting that he has had some very good luck this year given the .136 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .440 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

It may be best to expect worse results for the Philadelphia Phillies offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 3rd-luckiest offense in baseball this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Cal Quantrill's change-up rate has increased by 15.6% from last season to this one (22.4% to 38%) .

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Brendan Rodgers's 10.6% Barrel% (a reliable stat to study power) is in the 77th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies' bullpen grades out as the 9th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 22 games (+7.80 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 36 of their last 51 games (+19.05 Units / 31% ROI)
• Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Under in 26 of his last 50 games (+14.35 Units / 27% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 6.24 vs Colorado Rockies 4.56

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.