Philadelphia Phillies vs Colorado Rockies Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 24, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cristopher Sanchez - Phillies
  • Ty Blach - Rockies

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

On May 24, 2024, the Colorado Rockies will take on the Philadelphia Phillies at Coors Field in a National League matchup. The Rockies, with a season record of 16-33, are having a tough season, while the Phillies boast an impressive 37-14 record, making it a great season for them.

The Rockies, serving as the home team, will send left-handed pitcher Ty Blach to the mound. Blach, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, is ranked as the #311 best starting pitcher in MLB, making him one of the worst pitchers in the league. In his three starts this season, Blach has a win/loss record of 1-2 with an ERA of 5.14. However, his 4.37 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

The Phillies, on the other hand, will have left-handed pitcher Cristopher Sanchez as their starter. Sanchez is ranked as the #34 best starting pitcher in MLB, making him a good pitcher. In his nine starts this season, Sanchez has a win/loss record of 2-3 with an impressive ERA of 3.31. His 2.58 FIP indicates that he has been unlucky and is also likely to perform better in the future.

This game marks the first in the series between these two teams. In their last games, the Rockies lost to the Athletics with a close score of 10-9, while the Phillies defeated the Rangers with a score of 5-2. The Rockies' offense ranks as the #17 best in MLB this season, while the Phillies' offense ranks as the #4 best. This suggests that the Phillies have the advantage when it comes to hitting.

Based on the current odds, the Phillies are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -205 and an implied win probability of 65%. THE BAT X projects the Phillies to have a win probability of 64%. The Rockies, on the other hand, are big underdogs with a moneyline of +175 and an implied win probability of 35%.

In terms of team statistics, the Rockies rank #18 in MLB in team batting average and #24 in team home runs. The Phillies, on the other hand, rank #8 in team batting average and #16 in team home runs. The Rockies' bullpen is ranked as the #18 best in MLB, while the Phillies' bullpen is ranked as the #6 best.

The Rockies' best hitter this season has been Ryan McMahon, who has recorded 25 runs, 30 RBIs, and 9 home runs with a batting average of .298 and an OPS of .869. Bryce Harper has been the Phillies' best hitter, with 31 runs, 37 RBIs, and 12 home runs, along with a batting average of .281 and an OPS of .934.

The Game Total for this matchup is set at 11.0 runs, indicating a potentially high-scoring game. THE BAT X projects the Rockies to score 4.75 runs on average, while the Phillies are projected to score 6.73 runs on average.

With the Phillies having a stronger offense, a better starting pitcher, and a higher win probability, they are the favored team in this matchup. However, in baseball, anything can happen, and the Rockies will look to defy the odds and secure a victory.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Cristopher Sanchez's fastball velocity has increased 2 mph this season (93.6 mph) over where it was last year (91.6 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Johan Rojas has been lucky in regards to his home runs since the start of last season; his 7.7 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is inflated compared to his 0.0 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen ranks as the 6th-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Compared to the average starting pitcher, Ty Blach has been granted a shorter leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, tallying an -14.5 fewer adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Since the start of last season, Ryan McMahon's 11.6% Barrel%, a reliable standard for measuring power, places him in the 79th percentile among his peers.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brenton Doyle in the 14th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 17 games (+5.40 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 31 of their last 40 games (+20.85 Units / 43% ROI)
• Kris Bryant has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 64% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 6.68 vs Colorado Rockies 4.89

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