Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds Prediction For 4/22/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds Overview

• Date: April 22, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ranger Suarez - Phillies
  • Hunter Greene - Reds
• Run Line: Phillies -1.5 135, Reds 1.5 -155
• Money Line: Phillies -120, Reds 100
• Total (Over/Under): 9

Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Philadelphia Phillies - 52%
• Cincinnati Reds - 48%

Projected Win %:

• Philadelphia Phillies - 55.25%
• Cincinnati Reds - 44.75%

Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds Game Preview & Prediction

The Cincinnati Reds will host the Philadelphia Phillies in a National League matchup at Great American Ball Park on April 22, 2024. The Reds are having a good season with a record of 12-9, while the Phillies are having a great season with a record of 14-8.

The Reds are projected to start right-handed pitcher Hunter Greene, who is considered the #58 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Greene has started four games this year and has a win/loss record of 0-1 with an ERA of 4.35. However, his 3.77 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

On the other side, the Phillies are projected to start left-handed pitcher Ranger Suarez, who is ranked as the #53 best starting pitcher in MLB. Suarez has started four games this year and has an impressive record of 3-0 with an ERA of 1.73. However, his 2.41 xFIP suggests that he has been lucky and may not perform as well in the future.

The Reds offense ranks as the 14th best in MLB this season, while the Phillies offense ranks slightly higher at 17th. The Reds have a strong stolen base game, ranking first in MLB in team stolen bases. However, their offense is average in terms of batting average and home runs. The Phillies have a good batting average, ranking 8th in MLB, and an average ranking in home runs.

In terms of betting odds, the Reds have a moneyline set at +100, implying a win probability of 48%. The Phillies have a moneyline set at -120, implying a win probability of 52%. This suggests that the game is expected to be a close one.

In this matchup, the Phillies may have an advantage as Suarez is a high-strikeout pitcher facing a Reds offense that strikes out frequently. Additionally, Suarez has good control, which could pose a challenge for the Reds' patient offense that draws a lot of walks.

It should be an exciting game between two teams with winning records. The Reds will look to continue their good season, while the Phillies aim to further establish themselves as a strong contender.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Out of every team on the slate today, the 13th-worst infield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Bryce Harper will have the handedness advantage against Hunter Greene in today's matchup.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The 3rd-best projected offense on the slate in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Compared to average, Hunter Greene has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, tallying an extra 6.1 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

The Cincinnati Reds bullpen ranks as the 8th-worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 68 of their last 112 games (+15.90 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Run Line in 37 of their last 67 games (+10.20 Units / 13% ROI)
• Nick Castellanos has hit the Total Bases Under in 6 of his last 9 away games (+3.30 Units / 25% ROI)

Phillies vs Reds Prediction: Phillies 4.99 - Reds 4.22

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