Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds Pick For 4/23/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds Overview

• Date: April 23, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cristopher Sanchez - Phillies
  • Andrew Abbott - Reds
• Run Line: Phillies -1.5 130, Reds 1.5 -150
• Money Line: Phillies -130, Reds 110
• Total (Over/Under): 8.5

Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Philadelphia Phillies - 54%
• Cincinnati Reds - 46%

Projected Win %:

• Philadelphia Phillies - 53.64%
• Cincinnati Reds - 46.36%

Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds Game Preview & Prediction

In an exciting National League matchup, the Cincinnati Reds will host the Philadelphia Phillies at Great American Ball Park on April 23, 2024. The Reds, with a season record of 12-10, are having an above-average season, while the Phillies boast an impressive 15-8 record, indicating a great season for them.

The Reds are projected to start left-handed pitcher Andrew Abbott, who has a win/loss record of 1-2 this year. Abbott has showcased excellent performance with an ERA of 2.70. However, his 5.06 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could perform worse going forward. On the other side, the Phillies are projected to start left-handed pitcher Cristopher Sanchez, who has a win/loss record of 1-2 and an impressive ERA of 2.53. Sanchez's 3.06 SIERA indicates that he may have been lucky and could perform worse, but his 2.01 FIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward.

The Reds offense ranks as the 13th best in MLB this season, showcasing average talent. They excel in stolen bases, ranking first in the league. Meanwhile, the Phillies offense ranks as the 15th best in MLB, also displaying average talent. However, they have a good ranking in team batting average, ranking 8th in the league.

According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, the Reds bullpen is considered the 18th best in MLB, while the Phillies bullpen ranks as the 29th best, indicating a significant disadvantage for the Phillies in this area.

The game total for today's matchup is set at 8.5 runs, which is considered average. The Reds have a moneyline of +110, implying a 46% win probability, while the Phillies have a moneyline of -130, implying a 54% win probability. The odds suggest that this will be a close game.

Overall, the Phillies have a strong advantage with their impressive record and the performance of their starting pitcher, Cristopher Sanchez. However, the Reds' offense, especially their ability to steal bases, could pose a challenge for Sanchez, who is a high-strikeout pitcher. This game promises to be an exciting matchup between two competitive teams.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

The Cincinnati Reds have 8 batters in the projected lineup that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cristopher Sanchez in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

The Cincinnati Reds outfield defense profiles as the 4th-best among every team playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Extreme flyball bats like Spencer Steer are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Cristopher Sanchez.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 70 of their last 114 games (+17.90 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 72 of their last 117 games (+12.30 Units / 7% ROI)
• Will Benson has hit the Total Bases Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.45 Units / 64% ROI)

Phillies vs Reds Prediction: Phillies 4.91 - Reds 4.28

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